Don’t Call it a Vibe Shift—Yet
Trump’s poll numbers are falling, but he has time to turn it around.
Since Donald Trump’s election in November, political observers have noticed something different about his second go at the presidency: he has enjoyed more popular support than he did the first time around. At the end of his first term, Trump had one of the lowest presidential approval ratings on record, and he averaged the lowest approval of any president in the polling era throughout his four years.
But things change fast in politics. After the country struggled to control inflation, immigration, and crime under Joe Biden’s presidency, many Americans began looking back on Trump’s first term with rose-colored glasses, yearning for a time when things seemed less chaotic and the economy was in better shape. There was a vibe shift under way that many prognosticators failed to foresee, and it favored Trump. He began his second term with majority approval (51.6%) and a net approval of 11.6 points—far greater popularity than he had at any point in his first term when his approval never even cracked 50%.
However, never underestimate Trump’s penchant for overplaying an incredible hand. Far from addressing the main issue that powered his return to office—voters’ frustrations with persistent inflation—Trump has instead focused his energy on waging an all-out war on institutions and individuals who he believes have wronged him. To be sure, some of his early moves have been broadly popular, especially those regarding immigration and sex and gender. But three months in, many of the core voters who were responsible for his election are beginning to abandon him, and his approval rating is on an undeniable decline.
Since beginning his second term in great shape, Trump has lost most of his cushion and is now close to his first-term levels of unpopularity. As of this week, his net approval is underwater and at its lowest point so far, hitting -9.1 points (with 44.1% approving against 53.2% disapproving). In contrast with his first term, one of his weakest points has been his handling of the economy. According to a tracker from the pollster Adam Carlson, Trump’s net approval is in big trouble on the economy generally (-14.2 points), trade and tariffs (-20.5 points), and inflation (-22.6 points). This is no doubt the product of Trump doing virtually nothing so far to tackle rising costs—which voters continue to cite as their top concern—while taking other steps that risk exacerbating ongoing issues.
It’s not just the economy, either. Arguably Trump’s best issue in his second term has been immigration. Here too, though, voters have begun losing trust in him. Carlson’s averages show that Trump’s net approval on the issue has gone from +8.5 on April 8 to -2.8 as of this week. One reason for this may be a perception that his administration has overreached on its deportation program. A new Economist/YouGov poll found that Americans believe by a two-to-one margin that Trump should bring back Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a man whom his administration has admitted in court it wrongly deported to a prison in El Salvador.
Another sign of Trump’s clear decline is the erosion of support from segments of the electorate that helped him win, including independents. Post-election polling from Fox News and the Associated Press indicated that independent voters broke for Harris only narrowly, by roughly six points. A new Fox News survey, however, found Trump in deeply negative territory with them: just 26% approve of his performance compared to a whopping 73% who disapprove. Perhaps even more alarming to the White House is his declining performance among a core constituency: non-college whites. After winning that cohort by more than 30 points last year, these voters are now evenly split on his performance in Fox’s latest poll. And even Carlson’s poll averages only show him ahead with them by 17 points, a marked drop from last November.
Despite the bad polling for Trump, it’s important to remember that we’re still only a few months into his second term. Moreover, much of his growing disapproval appears to be in response to self-inflicted wounds. It’s hardly surprising that Trump’s refusal to more directly address voters’ top concern is leaving them annoyed. His unpopular trade war has also been entirely of his own choosing, and he could bring it to an end at any time and calm people’s fears that it will lead to higher prices on goods and services.
But the fact that Trump was elected a second time, and with a higher level of support, indicates that more Americans have been willing to overlook his clear deficiencies because they hope he can return things to the way they were before COVID. It’s not hard to see how Trump could earn some of this support back by bringing his trade war to an imminent end, publicly pivoting (even if just rhetorically) to tackling inflation, and tamping down on the worst excesses of his administration’s immigration policies.
Whether he will actually do any of that is another question entirely. But the bottom has not yet fallen out. Despite the downward trajectory of his approval rating, Trump still remains in better shape today than he was at this point in his first term.
For Trump’s detractors, including the Democrats, this means it’s important not to assume there’s a vibe shift back in their direction just yet. If they hope to help facilitate such a shift, they must keep their eye on the ball and hit Trump where he’s most vulnerable: the economy. That may be their best bet to cleave off more of his support and turn the political winds decisively in their favor.
Michael Baharaeen is the Chief Political Analyst for The Liberal Patriot. He is a native of Kansas City and writes the Checks and Balances newsletter on Substack.
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We should not take too much solace from polling even if Trump‘s approval rating continues to decline. In 1983, Reagan had a 32% approval rating in the polls, and only a year later, in the 1984 presidential election, he won every state except one in the electoral college. The big question on my mind is whether the almost 50-50 standoff between the Republican and Democratic parties can shift significantly or whether we need a new party to change the equation much like we did prior to the Civil War when the Whig party collapsed over slavery. That gave rise to the Republican Party, which was basically a one – issue, anti-slavery party. Perhaps we need an anti-authoritarian party to emerge.
The obvious question is a vibe shift to what? It is not enough just to attack Trump and his policies if that is what they are. Last time I checked, we still have a two party system so the other party, the Democrats, whatever they are now, must reorganize and present alternative policies that will be attractive to center left, center and center right voters. The voters know Trump and what his administration is doing. Do the voters know who the leaders are among the Democrats at the district, state and national levels and what they represent? Do the Democrats know who their leaders are and what they represent as a party?