Georgia Tries, and Fails, to Emulate Hungary
The Trump administration has so far ignored Georgia, despite its autocratic government’s best efforts. Let’s hope it stays that way.
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By capturing the imagination of America’s conservative media and intellectuals, Viktor Orbán’s Hungary seems to have created a playbook that other aspiring authoritarians may emulate in order to ingratiate themselves with the Republican Party and with President Donald Trump. But how well does it work for Hungary’s imitators?
Not so well, if one looks at the example of Georgia, a nation in the Caucasus with a population of 3.7 million, currently in the tight grip of its Putin-aligned governing party, Georgian Dream (GD). Busy cracking down on civil society—the most recent iteration of its anti-NGO legislation would basically outlaw foreign funding for civil society groups, unless explicitly permitted by the government—and jailing protesters, GD has also leaned heavily into culture war issues, from LGBTQ rights to lashing out against the “Deep State” and supposed warmongers trying to drag Georgia into a conflict with Russia. Given how closely GD’s rhetoric mimics that coming out of MAGA circles, it is obvious that the messages are calibrated with a foreign, not only with a domestic, audience in mind.
GD has friends in high places too. Orbán was the only EU leader who visited Georgia in the immediate aftermath of an unfair and likely rigged election in October last year. Slovakia’s Robert Fico, who has accused Georgian activists of attempting a coup against him, seems a fan too.
Yet GD is getting surprisingly little love from the current administration in Washington. To be sure, the government rejoiced when all USAID-funded civil society programs in the country came to an abrupt halt in January. But the party’s founder (and funder), Bidzina Ivanishvili, worth $2.7 billion—most of which he made in Russia under unclear circumstances—continues to face U.S. sanctions imposed at the end of the Biden administration. The State Department, including the U.S. Embassy in Tbilisi, has been completely silent in the first four months of the Trump administration.
Adding insult to injury, the House has recently passed the MEGOBARI Act (in addition to being an acronym, “megobari” means friend in Georgian) introduced by the South Carolina Republican Joe Wilson, which will demand that the administration subject GD’s undemocratic practices and its ties to Russia and China to explicit scrutiny and report back to Congress.
The GD leadership seems so frustrated that the prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, decided to pen an extraordinary open letter addressed to both Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance. Writing in the style of a needy teenager, he reminded U.S. leaders that GD had spoken “openly about the criminal activities of the Deep State, USAID, NED and other related entities several years before you made identical statements. Our assessments regarding the war in Ukraine, gender and LGBT propaganda, and many other issues are completely aligned.”
Georgians, Kobakhidze claims, “find it perplexing that, while you harshly criticize President Biden’s decisions, you have yet to reverse any of his criminal actions.” He then called for a “reset” in the U.S.-Georgia relationship.
The attempt to reach the U.S. president smacks both of desperation and ineptitude. Just why hasn’t GD deployed anything from its bag of Orbán-style tools of international influence? The drop-dead gorgeous country with a deep tradition of hospitality is a perfect place to bamboozle gullible, socially conservative Americans. All it takes is to fly in, as Orbán has done, a handful of right-wing influencers for all-expenses-paid trips, feeding them a diet of heavenly Georgian food and wine, complaints about the “Deep State,” and the government-aligned version of Orthodox Christianity.
To be sure, Hungarian outreach to conservative circles has gone on for years. It is also sophisticated, offering something for every taste. The Tucker Carlsons of the world are flown in to dine privately with the prime minister, while lesser conservative voices are invited to conferences, Hungary’s own CPAC, or encouraged to apply for generous visiting fellowships at Orbán’s private quasi-university and his think-tanks. And for everybody else, there is a sleek, glossy magazine of ideas, available in bookshops around the world.
Could a handful of semi-competent operatives bankrolled by Ivanishvili’s immense wealth reproduce Hungary’s success, perhaps at a more modest scale? Would a CPAC in Georgia, easily accessible through major airline hubs such as Istanbul, be out of the question? Tbilisi has no shortage of swanky hotels and other venues ready to impress international visitors.
Moreover, Ivanishvili can do things that even Orbán would not dare to do, either because of Hungarian public opinion or strictures of EU law. Unlike the emirs of Qatar, he may not be able to offer an airplane. A real estate deal, however, should be a no brainer. Jared Kushner is already building a $500-million Trump hotel in Belgrade, Serbia, on a piece of land owned by the country’s Defense Ministry—as well as another project in Albania. Finding a hungry mouth in Trump’s circle and feeding it is a game that should be familiar enough and easy for Ivanishvili to play.
Trump or no Trump, GD isn’t seriously looking to align itself with the United States. But neither are Serbia or Hungary, who are jealously guarding its economic links with Beijing against the slightest hint of “decoupling.” Just as ties to international terrorism and Iran have not stopped Qatar from stealing the heart of the U.S. president, it seems unlikely that similarly pedestrian considerations would keep him from taking advantage of an offer coming from GD.
The explanation for Georgia’s failure to make inroads with the administration may boil down to the incompetence of its governing class—rather than to the laudable effort by the likes of Rep. Wilson and other internationalists on the Hill to make GD’s brand toxic. With money and effort, such obstacles can be overcome. Defenders of Georgia’s democracy should therefore celebrate every week that the U.S. administration appears clueless or decides to stay silent about developments in Georgia. The relevant alternative, one is sorry to say, is not a principled set of policies that will hold GD to account, but something far more sinister.
Dalibor Rohac is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington DC.
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Thanks for your thoughts, Dalibor. It is crazy that there are people around the world who consider Orban's system an inspiration.