The energy lens is also important to consider when thinking through the difference between Russia and China's invasion decisions. Russia's status as an energy exporter gave it the insulation it needed to launch its invasion at a high point in the oil price cycle. China's status as an energy importer cripples its optionality due to the Ma…
The energy lens is also important to consider when thinking through the difference between Russia and China's invasion decisions. Russia's status as an energy exporter gave it the insulation it needed to launch its invasion at a high point in the oil price cycle. China's status as an energy importer cripples its optionality due to the Malacca Dilemma.
Even if Xi fixes the near-term corruption and economic concerns, he'll have to deal with revamped focus and collaboration from the US and its Quad allies over the medium-term and cratering Chinese demographics over the long-term. Given these mounting issues, he may simply decide that there's no time like the present. If not, we may have China's poor energy footing to thank.
The energy lens is also important to consider when thinking through the difference between Russia and China's invasion decisions. Russia's status as an energy exporter gave it the insulation it needed to launch its invasion at a high point in the oil price cycle. China's status as an energy importer cripples its optionality due to the Malacca Dilemma.
Even if Xi fixes the near-term corruption and economic concerns, he'll have to deal with revamped focus and collaboration from the US and its Quad allies over the medium-term and cratering Chinese demographics over the long-term. Given these mounting issues, he may simply decide that there's no time like the present. If not, we may have China's poor energy footing to thank.