Netanyahu's Wars of Dismantlement
Israel’s prime minister is using Gaza as an excuse to remove the remaining checks on his power.
On January 21, 2025, two days after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas went into effect, I argued in Persuasion that the deal struck between the two mortal enemies makes no strategic sense for Israel unless “Netanyahu has no intention of going beyond the initial ceasefire phase.” Under this scenario the planned first phase of the deal—a 42-day respite in fighting—was meant as a temporary measure only, one “in which Israel returns as many live civilians and female soldiers as possible (knowing full well that Hamas will never release all the hostages, who are its only insurance policy), replenishes its ammunition stocks, and gives the IDF a much-needed break from long months of combat.”
I also argued that the more likely explanation for the bad deal was that it was designed to lay the groundwork for another deal: an emergent, but still clandestine, American-Israeli strategic understanding that would reframe the Gaza war in the context of a broader regional strategy to weaken Iran and expand the Abraham Accords to include a normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
Following two of the most tumultuous months in geopolitics for decades, the first argument—that Netanyahu only ever saw the ceasefire as temporary—has proven to be correct, while the second—that this is the groundwork for a larger deal—remains plausible. We have compelling new evidence of a broader American-Israeli dismantlement campaign designed to curtail Iran, degrade its proxies, and weaken the Axis of Upheaval in which Iran is a key member.
What I did not consider then—and perhaps should have—was the parallel impact of the Trump administration’s disregard for liberal democracy on domestic Israeli politics. I did not imagine the possibility that Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, would be inspired by that disregard and interpret it—together with the permanent state of emergency created by the perpetuation of the war—as license to dismantle not only Hamas in Gaza and its allies abroad, but the last remaining checks on executive power inside Israel itself.
Dismantlement Abroad
It is tempting to view the return to war in Gaza—which began on the night of March 18 and continues today—as yet another round of fighting in an apparently endless “cycle of violence” between Hamas and Israel. It is similarly tempting to see Israel’s current campaign as simply an attempt to force Hamas to release more hostages by putting an end to a situation—unacceptable to Israel—in which hostages languish in Hamas tunnels while the jihadi group is spared further military pressure and can rebuild itself as a terrorist army controlling the lives of millions of Palestinians. Those Palestinians are already, by far, the greatest victims of the October 7 war, having suffered tens of thousands of casualties and the physical devastation of Gaza. The cruelest of futures for Gazans is one in which Hamas continues to control their lives and sacrifice their children on the altar of jihad.
Certainly, Netanyahu’s promise that the aerial and naval bombardments that broke the ceasefire were “only the beginning” and that “from now on negotiations will only take place under fire” was meant to squeeze Hamas, and to spur Egypt in particular to help end the deadlock. As of today, that pressure appears to be bearing fruit: Egypt has threatened to expel from its territory all Hamas officials if the group defies the Egyptian proposal to release five live hostages—including Edan Alexander, an American citizen—in exchange for an immediate ceasefire, the release of more Palestinian prisoners, and supply of fuel and humanitarian assistance.
But even if another temporary ceasefire is achieved—and Israel manages to shrink its hostage crisis by retrieving more live ones—tactical explanations for the resumption of military action miss the bigger picture. The war in Gaza has entered a qualitatively new phase and must be understood as part of a broader American-Israeli strategy of dismantling the “Ring of Fire” constructed by Iran and its proxies around Israel over the past two decades. Indeed, degrading and destroying Hamas is now a relatively minor component in the broader policy of dismantlement. For the Americans it is an even smaller piece in a global geopolitical puzzle, a maneuver meant to isolate Iran and disrupt the China-Iran-North Korea-Russia alignment.
The aims of dismantlement overlap heavily for Americans and Israelis but are not identical. For the Trump administration, the priorities are to achieve enough stability in the Middle East to allow Washington to focus on its peer competitor, China, without continued (costly) military commitments in the region.
Prying apart Iran and Russia is part and parcel of this China-oriented strategic logic, as is degrading Iran’s proxies in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen, while bolstering cooperation between Sunni Arab states and Israel. Defying JD Vance’s isolationist instincts (as revealed in the Signal debacle of this week), Trump has demonstrated a willingness to carry out extensive military attacks on the Houthis in Yemen. An open-ended campaign of dismantlement is something the Trump administration appears both willing and able to engage in militarily.
In addition, there is money to be made. Trump and key members of his team—especially confidante Steve Witkoff—are enamored with the wealth and business-pliability of the Gulf kingdoms and view them as gigantic opportunities for the lucrative defense, infrastructure, and finance deals needed to make America great again. In early March, Saudi Arabia announced plans to invest $1.3 trillion in the U.S. economy, a move that would include vast purchases of American military equipment. Not to be outdone by its larger Saudi neighbor, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) followed suit with a 10-year $1.4 trillion investment framework in America.
What do Saudi and the UAE expect in return? Security and stability, which mean a defanged Iran, reasonably pacified Iranian proxies and, if possible, cooperative American-Israeli-Sunni intelligence, missile defense, and innovation arrangements.
Dismantlement at Home
For Netanyahu, meanwhile, an open-ended campaign of dismantlement—including a “forever war” in Gaza—provides numerous personal benefits. Under Israeli law, failure to pass a budget triggers the government’s automatic fall. By resuming the war in Gaza, Netanyahu was able to secure the return of Itamar Ben-Gvir’s far-right Jewish Power Party to his coalition just ahead of the crucial budget vote at the Knesset on Tuesday, which his government won. As long as the war continues, Netanyahu is virtually assured a coalition majority and will govern Israel at least until the next round of general elections, which are scheduled for October 2026. By then, Netanyahu hopes to have put enough distance between the October 7 catastrophe and himself to win reelection.
For Netanyahu, remaining in power is crucial not only for his historical legacy but for avoiding the uncomfortable possibility of going to jail. Already under indictment on charges of fraud and corruption, Netanyahu may be facing a new criminal investigation into what Israeli media has dubbed “Qatargate”—allegations that senior aides in his closest circles were hired by Qatar to promote that country’s interests in the highest Israeli political and security echelons. The same Qatari government that has, since 2014, funded Hamas with Netanyahu’s approval is now suspected to have paid for political influence inside the prime minister’s own bureau.
What has been Netanyahu’s response to these astonishing allegations? To fire the head of the Shin Bet, the national agency responsible for preventing foreign subversion inside Israel, to suggest that the government will not comply with a Supreme Court ruling that would thwart his will, and to claim that a “Deep State” conspiracy orchestrated by the Attorney General and Israeli judiciary is out to get him.
In an extraordinary tweet published on March 20, Netanyahu stated that: “In America and in Israel, when a strong right wing leader wins an election, the leftist Deep State weaponizes the justice system to thwart the people’s will. They won’t win in either place! We stand strong together.” Elon Musk responded with the 100 percent emoji. Three days later, the Israeli cabinet unanimously passed a no-confidence vote motion against the Attorney General, Gali Baharav-Miara, a first step towards her removal.
Israel is now on the cusp of a constitutional nervous breakdown in which the Jewish state’s executive branch is in open rebellion against the last remaining checks on its power. In this crisis, the prime minister—in the midst of a war on multiple fronts and with an ICC arrest warrant hanging over his head—is deliberately taking apart the country’s democratic institutions and norms.
Like Recep Erdoğan in Turkey, Netanyahu senses the zeitgeist opened up by the U.S. president’s disdain for liberal democratic guardrails and has decided to seize the opportunity to demolish anyone he deems a risk to his continued rule. The indicted is seeking to fire his prosecutor and to take over the judicial appointment committee responsible for determining the professional fate of the judges that preside over his trial. The dismantlement strategy has turned inwards.
Israel’s Hugo Chávez
Benjamin Netanyahu is a highly intelligent, well-read, and historically aware man, which makes his behavior all the more egregious. He has read his Thucydides and knows that only an Israeli society that is free and internally cohesive will be able to withstand its powerful external enemies. He has read his John Locke and Federalist Papers and knows full well the dangers of unaccountable government and the destruction of the rule of law. He knows full well but does not seem to care.
Netanyahu has long expressed his admiration for Winston Churchill and likely wishes to be remembered as Israel’s version of the great wartime British leader. The Israeli prime minister may have come across Churchill’s 1936 essay “What Good’s a Constitution?” If he has not, he really should. In that essay, Churchill explains that war is destructive to liberty and that true leaders must do everything they can to prevent prolonged conditions of emergency at home or abroad. Netanyahu’s war of dismantlement abroad may win him (and Israel) short-term gains, but at a devastating cost to Israeli society and national resilience.
As I argued in Persuasion four days after the worst day in Jewish history since the Holocaust, Netanyahu was repeatedly warned—including by Ronen Bar, the chief of Shin Bet he has now fired—that his divisive leadership exposed Israel to great danger. His war of dismantlement at home means he is more likely to be remembered not as a Winston Churchill, but as a Hugo Chávez.
Amichai Magen is the director of the Program on Democratic Resilience & Development at Reichman University. He is a Visiting Professor and Fellow in Israel Studies at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.
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I wonder whether anyone has studied why people write essays like this -- or, perhaps more to the point, why people read them.
Take one example of many where the author is just making things up: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘴𝘵 𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵—𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘕𝘦𝘵𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘢𝘩𝘶 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘦𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘢𝘸 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘦𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘦 𝘢𝘴 𝘵𝘦𝘮𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘳𝘺—𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘵
Well, 𝗻𝗼, of course it hasn't. Perhaps his initial agreement was contingent on subsequent events. Perhaps he rethought the matter and 𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘥 𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘥. The author's guess is a very plausible one, but 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘯? Really?
If one comes to these matters without a political bias and pays the least bit of attention, one sees that virtually all of these essays are founded on the author's ability to read someone's -- perhaps everyone's -- mind. There's usually an additional assumption that nothing is ever contingent, that people have perfect knowledge, that nobody makes really stupid mistakes or forgets anything or changes his thinking.
They are more like fan-fiction than analyses.
Netanyahu has been trying to dismantle Israeli democracy since long before October 7, with his judicial "reform" and other efforts to eliminate checks on his power. These efforts are continuing, even during war.