Putin's Manpower Shortage
Without migrants, Putin's war machinery could begin to crumble.
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Traditionally, labor migrants from Central Asia viewed Russia as a primary destination for addressing their economic difficulties. But as a result of the Crocus City Hall terrorist attack in March, there has been growing anti-migrant hysteria in Russia, which has forced tens of thousands of Kyrgyz, Tajiks, and Uzbeks to seek new opportunities in Western countries. That may have knock-on effects for the Kremlin’s war efforts in Ukraine.
Unwilling to declare a general, or even another partial mobilization, Russian President Vladimir Putin struggles to find ways to recruit more troops to fight in Ukraine. He often increases payments for individuals who sign contracts to join the Russian military. But the number of people prepared to seriously risk their lives storming well-fortified Ukrainian positions is not unlimited. That is why, over the past two and a half years, Moscow has reportedly forced thousands of migrant workers and foreign students to join the Russian army to fight against Ukraine. Some of them have voluntarily joined the Russian Armed Forces, hoping that, if they survive the war, they and their families will obtain Russian citizenship.
The problem for the Kremlin, however, is that it can no longer count on a large pool of migrants to fight on the Russian side. In 2023, Putin said that around 10 million labor migrants—the vast majority of them coming from Central Asia—lived in Russia. But according to official Russian statistics, the population of labor migrants in the country has decreased significantly. For instance, during the first nine months of 2019, 239,000 labor migrants moved to Russia, while in 2023 the number fell to only 2,200. Russian experts estimate that, in order to maintain the population at 146 million people, the country needs to attract an average of 390,000 migrants annually for the next 80 years.
Pursuing anti-migrant policy, however, is unlikely to help Moscow achieve that goal. The Russian government plans to introduce “digital profiles” for all migrants, aiming to “better track the movement of foreign workers and ensure security.” Critics, however, argue that the authorities are seeking to create a “digital Gulag” for migrants. As a result, the number of labor migrants coming to Russia is expected to continue declining.
Frequent raids, flight delays from the region to Russia and back, long waits at the border with Kazakhstan, and the risk of being sent to fight in Ukraine, have become a new reality for labor migrants. These developments could have serious consequences for the Russian economy.
Quite aware of its imminent shortage, the Kremlin is trying to attract migrants from Africa. Russia has reportedly reached a deal with Kenya to enable the migration of skilled workers, while it also eyes cheap labor from North Korea and Vietnam. There is no doubt that Russian policy makers hope that some of them will end up fighting in Ukraine.
On the other hand, Russia aims to additionally limit the influx of migrants from Central Asia—a region that has traditionally been in Moscow’s geopolitical orbit. Vyacheslav Volodin, chairman of Russia’s State Duma, has argued that migrants from former Soviet republics should be prohibited from bringing their families to the Russian Federation.
“When we talk about low-skilled migrant workers coming to Russia, we need to make a decision so that they come to work, and nothing more than that. It is not necessary for them to bring their families to Russia,” Volodin said on September 4.
A few weeks later, he confirmed that the Duma had introduced five bills that would “contribute to establishing order in the area of migration policy.” Volodin also wants to adopt a new law to register migrants for military service as part of their application for Russian citizenship. In other words, they are eligible for Russian passports only if they survive Putin’s war in Ukraine.
It is, therefore, no surprise that migrants from Uzbekistan are increasingly eyeing Germany, rather than Russia, as their new home. On September 16, Berlin signed a migration and mobility partnership agreement with Tashkent in an attempt to attract more qualified workers to Germany. Reports suggest that migrants from Central Asia are also increasingly moving to countries such as Turkey and South Korea, as well as the United Kingdom.
That deficit of available manpower pushes Putin ever closer to declaring another round of “partial mobilization.” Widespread conscription, carried out in September 2022, was very unpopular, and Putin would be reluctant to resort to such a move again.
Unwilling to participate in Putin’s war on Ukraine, around one million Russians have left the country since February 2022. Any form of mobilization would likely trigger another wave of exodus among young and educated Russians, which could have a serious impact on the nation’s economy. Mindful of this, Putin is now struggling to attract Westerners to Russia, hoping that their presence could contribute not only to the country’s economy but also to its demographics. He recently signed a decree aimed at facilitating the relocation to Russia of individuals who support “traditional values” and oppose "neoliberal" ideas.
Even though some Western “dissidents” might strongly oppose their governments’ policies, very few are likely to seek a “safe haven” in Putin’s Russia, especially after Russian servicemen tortured and killed Russell Bentley, a Texan who was fighting on the Russian side against Ukraine. Without migrants— whether from Central Asia or elsewhere—Russia is unlikely to resolve its labor shortage and manpower deficit.
Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist, researcher and analyst based in Serbia.
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