The Arctic’s Hot Spot
NATO needs to protect Svalbard.
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2025 marks the 100th anniversary of Norwegian sovereignty over Svalbard. The archipelago is 1.5 times the size of Denmark (without counting Greenland), and its capital, Longyearbyen, is the northernmost city in the world at 78 degrees north. The Svalbard Treaty granted Norway full sovereignty while allowing other signatory nations economic access. One hundred years later, Svalbard is a geopolitical “hot spot” in the Arctic.
The region is becoming an area of increased tension due to Arctic militarization, security concerns, and shifting global power structures. Svalbard is also a hot spot regarding climate change, and economic and geopolitical tensions. The region’s future will depend on how Norway manages its Arctic policies and whether it strengthens Svalbard’s economic and environmental resilience. If it fails to do so, there are many other contenders for who might control Svalbard, including Russia and China, both present in Svalbard today.
Since 2022 (as Professor Andreas Østhagen of Fridtjof Nansen Institute notes), Russia has increasingly accused Norway of violating the Svalbard Treaty, claiming that it limits Russian access and activities on the islands. Russia has also repeatedly accused Norway of treaty violations concerning the large satellite station, SvalSat, which currently consists of over 150 antennas. KSAT, which owns SvalSat, is the largest operator in the world when it comes to gathering civilian information around the North Pole and the Arctic, including weather information, climate surveillance, and so forth.
Russia plans to expand its activities in Svalbard. Vladimir Putin’s ambitions are clear: on a recent visit to Murmansk, 100 kilometers from the Norwegian mainland border, he said Russia would increase its Arctic presence commercially and militarily, substantially increase the harbor capacity in Murmansk, and establish a commercial Arctic fleet.
Svalbard has 2,958 residents. 60 per cent are Norwegians, and people from 59 nations comprise the rest of the population, of which there are about 350 Russians. The two Russian settlements at Svalbard are Barentsburg, a coal-mining town, and Pyramiden, which has only a handful of people. Barentsburg is just a couple of hours’ snowmobile ride from Longyearbyen. Seventy per cent of the coalminers in Barentsburg were once Ukrainians, but not anymore—relations with Longyearbyen deteriorated rapidly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Svalbard is strategically significant, and foreign powers are increasingly interested in it. Clause nine of the Treaty prohibits military activities, as Svalbard is a demilitarised zone. But the clause does not state anything about economic activities. Any of the more than 40 nations that have signed the Treaty can operate commercially at Svalbard, as long as the activities are not considered military.
What’s more, Østhagen is concerned that Trump’s geopolitical rhetoric, including buying Greenland, feeds into Russian narratives. On a recent trip to India, Østhagen met people echoing Russia’s questioning of Norwegian sovereignty over Svalbard. Several countries that signed the Svalbard Treaty, including China and India, have growing interests in Arctic research and natural resources, and a worsening relationship between the West and Russia up north can foster more military activities and potentially escalate conflicts.
In the first week of April, Longyearbyen hosted a big conference at which John Bolton, former national security adviser to Donald Trump, was the main guest. Bolton’s comments from the conference can be seen here. For instance, Bolton said he doesn’t think Trump knows where Svalbard is. Participants laughed when Bolton said that Trump was a one-year-old, not fit for the presidency, and that there was no filter between his brain and mouth.
Stian Jenssen, former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg’s Chief of Staff, was also present at the conference. Although he had a more optimistic view of Western liberal democracies’ abilities, he was concerned about the damage Trump could do to NATO, a view shared by Bolton. I hope Jenssen is right when he points to the West’s strengths: liberal values and democracy. He underlined the importance of continuing dialogues within NATO during the next three years of Trump. Jenssen half-jokingly asked the audience if they could come up with anything Russia-produced that they wanted to buy. I would be inclined to suggest gas, but I guess Europeans will be reluctant to open gas imports again.
We must understand that it is getting harder to draw sharp lines. Conflicts are often hybrid, involving sabotage and interference in civilian infrastructure (as raised at the conference by Niels Nagelhus Schia from the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs). For example, in January 2022 Svalbard’s cable connection with the Norwegian mainland, a stretch of more than 1000 kilometres, was damaged, leaving Svalbard with only one backup cable. Was it an accident or sabotage? That could not be proved, but it appeared to be caused by a fishing boat/trawler repeatedly going back and forth over the cable with the trawl deployed.
The United States should be interested in cooperating with Norway within the NATO alliance to prevent further geopolitical temperature rises at Svalbard. The Russians and the Chinese would surely like to engage in all ways possible in the Arctic, and Svalbard is in a unique position for this. When the ice withdraws, the Russians will have all the incentives to control the waters around the North Pole. Since the lines between civil and military operations are becoming more blurred, it is enough to mention cables, surveillance, rare minerals, and marine traffic around the Arctic as evidence of why it is essential for the United States to have Norway, as a NATO member, in charge of Svalbard.
Mathilde Fasting is an economist and historian of ideas at Civita, a Norwegian liberal think tank and host of Liberal Halvtime, Civita's weekly podcast. Her books include After the End of History and The Norwegian Exception.
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