I try to keep an open mind to any legitimate point of view. But one of the main problems I have with the "Team Panic" people advocating for Biden to resign is that their arguments are so often divorced from actual fact. Here's just one example among so many possibilities from this article:
"And, in contrast to Biden, they had it in them to simply outwork Trump—to appear constantly on television, constantly on the campaign trail, and, by contrast, to make Trump appear meandering and reactive."
So I ask you, in what world is Biden failing to "outwork" Trump? First of all, Biden is very busy doing the job of President of the United States while Trump goes to court and plays golf. But then there's this (from the AP):
"As President Joe Biden visited five cities in a multiday trip last week, former President Donald Trump was hardly seen in public, spending most of his time in South Florida.
Trump has held just a single public campaign event since he locked up the Republican presidential nomination on March 12: a rally in Ohio funded not by his campaign but by backers of a Senate candidate whom he had endorsed. The events page on his campaign website has had nothing listed.
Biden, meanwhile, has been barnstorming the country. After a trip to North Carolina on Tuesday, the Democratic president will have touched down in all of the 2024 swing states in the less than three weeks since his State of the Union address."
These "Team Panic" people expecting Biden to withdraw often just come across as lazy and therefore unconvincing. It's as if they're not even trying to craft a convincing or persuasive argument based on reality. They just make stuff up.
But in the actual reality that the rest of us live in, Biden is an incumbent President who negotiated and then signed several transformative laws that have helped usher in a booming economy. He presides over a mostly peaceful and hugely prosperous era in a country mercifully free from any major or long term disruption or protest that could be tied back to him. And modern history tells us that incumbent Presidents in these or relatively similar circumstances go on to win re-election (see Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr, and Obama).
But you know what else modern history tells us? A party risks losing the White House if their incumbent President bows to pressure and resigns rather than seeking re-election (see Johnson).
So I just don't know what exactly explains these zombie columns promoting Biden's resignation. They just keep shambling on even when facts, historical precedent, and yes, recent polling all increasingly point towards a Biden victory. Biden is by most measures a strong candidate while Trump is on one of the most historic losing streaks in the history of our national politics (Trump and/or his party lost the national vote in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022).
Oh, but Biden's old. And that pretty much seems to be all "Team Panic" has got. Sorry, but that's not convincing. Nor is it really a good look for the zombies still making these increasingly stillborn assertions that Biden should step aside.
"Polling suggests Donald Trump will win the presidential election"
It says nothing of the kind.
What model are you running to reach this conclusion?
You surely don't think that you can just look at the top-line numbers, which represent a less-than-1% sub-sample of all the people asked, and draw any conclusions from it. That would be, not to put too fine a point on it, idiotic. No one so innumerate as to look at top-line numbers and think they represent the electorate should be allowed near a prognosticator's podium.
Even a relatively simple model--which are often the best kind, as they are robust against a diversity of assumptions--based on recent electoral and primary outcomes, and accounting for top-line polling results-- shows Biden with a five-to-seven point advantage over trump. And that's today, before his first criminal conviction and before his slide into dementia becomes so extreme that even the paid incompetents of the mainstream press are forced to acknowledge it.
So please stop with the doom-saying nonsense based on a profoundly innumerate response to raw polling data. It serves no one, other than click-hungry ghouls trading on fear and outrage, and the worst elements of the anti-democratic right.
I dream of a Buttigieg/Whitmer ticket someday, but I still think that Biden is the only one who can beat Trump this year, and beating Trump is what it's still all about.
If only this were true! Alas, the DNC party machinery treats an incumbent President like the infallible Holy See. One must never question incumbent primacy. To do so is heresy.
I try to keep an open mind to any legitimate point of view. But one of the main problems I have with the "Team Panic" people advocating for Biden to resign is that their arguments are so often divorced from actual fact. Here's just one example among so many possibilities from this article:
"And, in contrast to Biden, they had it in them to simply outwork Trump—to appear constantly on television, constantly on the campaign trail, and, by contrast, to make Trump appear meandering and reactive."
So I ask you, in what world is Biden failing to "outwork" Trump? First of all, Biden is very busy doing the job of President of the United States while Trump goes to court and plays golf. But then there's this (from the AP):
"As President Joe Biden visited five cities in a multiday trip last week, former President Donald Trump was hardly seen in public, spending most of his time in South Florida.
Trump has held just a single public campaign event since he locked up the Republican presidential nomination on March 12: a rally in Ohio funded not by his campaign but by backers of a Senate candidate whom he had endorsed. The events page on his campaign website has had nothing listed.
Biden, meanwhile, has been barnstorming the country. After a trip to North Carolina on Tuesday, the Democratic president will have touched down in all of the 2024 swing states in the less than three weeks since his State of the Union address."
These "Team Panic" people expecting Biden to withdraw often just come across as lazy and therefore unconvincing. It's as if they're not even trying to craft a convincing or persuasive argument based on reality. They just make stuff up.
But in the actual reality that the rest of us live in, Biden is an incumbent President who negotiated and then signed several transformative laws that have helped usher in a booming economy. He presides over a mostly peaceful and hugely prosperous era in a country mercifully free from any major or long term disruption or protest that could be tied back to him. And modern history tells us that incumbent Presidents in these or relatively similar circumstances go on to win re-election (see Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush Jr, and Obama).
But you know what else modern history tells us? A party risks losing the White House if their incumbent President bows to pressure and resigns rather than seeking re-election (see Johnson).
So I just don't know what exactly explains these zombie columns promoting Biden's resignation. They just keep shambling on even when facts, historical precedent, and yes, recent polling all increasingly point towards a Biden victory. Biden is by most measures a strong candidate while Trump is on one of the most historic losing streaks in the history of our national politics (Trump and/or his party lost the national vote in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022).
Oh, but Biden's old. And that pretty much seems to be all "Team Panic" has got. Sorry, but that's not convincing. Nor is it really a good look for the zombies still making these increasingly stillborn assertions that Biden should step aside.
"Polling suggests Donald Trump will win the presidential election"
It says nothing of the kind.
What model are you running to reach this conclusion?
You surely don't think that you can just look at the top-line numbers, which represent a less-than-1% sub-sample of all the people asked, and draw any conclusions from it. That would be, not to put too fine a point on it, idiotic. No one so innumerate as to look at top-line numbers and think they represent the electorate should be allowed near a prognosticator's podium.
Even a relatively simple model--which are often the best kind, as they are robust against a diversity of assumptions--based on recent electoral and primary outcomes, and accounting for top-line polling results-- shows Biden with a five-to-seven point advantage over trump. And that's today, before his first criminal conviction and before his slide into dementia becomes so extreme that even the paid incompetents of the mainstream press are forced to acknowledge it.
So please stop with the doom-saying nonsense based on a profoundly innumerate response to raw polling data. It serves no one, other than click-hungry ghouls trading on fear and outrage, and the worst elements of the anti-democratic right.
I dream of a Buttigieg/Whitmer ticket someday, but I still think that Biden is the only one who can beat Trump this year, and beating Trump is what it's still all about.
In the real world, Joe Biden has been a great President in his first term, and he will continue to be a great President in his second term.
If only this were true! Alas, the DNC party machinery treats an incumbent President like the infallible Holy See. One must never question incumbent primacy. To do so is heresy.