Biden should not run. His current -10 favorability only compares historically with Bush Sr., Carter, and Trump in their first term, and they all lost. And Harris is even worse.
Trump also is widely unpopular but in polling he only trails Biden in a head to head in national popular vote by 2 percentage points (RCP aggregate) and if you look at 2016 and 2020 given the R advantage in the EC, the Dem needs to win by +3-4 (Hillary lost at +3, Biden won a close race at +4.5).
Worse, Biden loses to DeSantis in the head to head.
I started a FB group called Roy Cooper for President in 2024. Cooper is my governor in NC, won twice in a lean red state, soft spoken, popular, and historically governors have outperformed Senators and VPs. Another popular Dem governor in the heartland is Andy Bashear in KY who won in a state that went for Trump with 62% of the vote.
Dems have always done better with younger energetic candidates- JFK, Carter, B Clinton, Obama. Trump if he is nominated would be the oldest candidate except for one Joe Biden
There is no job that compares to the physical and psychological demands that the Presidency imposes. If geriatric medicine and psychology have revealed anything about aging, it is that physical and cognitive function declines measurably in the elderly long before their ninth decade of life which begins at age 81.
Moreover, we have three historical examples of that deterioration in Presidents who served in times of crisis.
When elected to a third in 1940 term Franklin Roosevelt was clearly in steep mental and physical decline. Woodrow Wilson, blessed with an acute intelligence as a younger man, clearly was not up to the demands of creating a just and endurable peace at the end of WW I. More recently, Ronald Reagan, in his second term, had manifestly impaired judgment. Would a younger Republican President have avoided the disaster of Irangate? The question is unanswerable. But clearly Reagan no longer had the mental acuity to judge the constitutional risks that the Iran-Conra conspiracy imposed.
Finally , it is at least conceivable that other Democrats would refuse to yield to Biden, thus creating a protracted and bitter primary race that could only benefit Donald Trump. Truly for the ambitious and successful, retiring with grace and dignity is life’s one of life’s most difficult decision. Only those cursed to die young avoid it.
"The obvious solution is for Biden to replace Harris and then step down (making his appointed VP, President). This would be both Constitutional and well-received (at least by some Democrats). Will he do it? I rather doubt it. Biden seems doomed to be Jimmy Carter II."
Still the best choice for the Democrats. An Open Democratic Primary would be good only for the Republicans.
Given the state of the primary system, the self-immolation wing of the Democratic Party is very likely to push for and get a candidate left of center in a right of center country. There is also the possibility of Republicans voting in Democrat primaries in an effort to push the choice to the left as some Democrats did in 2022 to promote candidates on the far right. It almost makes one long for the smoke filled rooms of the old days.
Also, with Robert Kennedy dead, did the Democrats have any choices beyond HHH in 1968 who could on a good day with a significant tail wind defeat RMN?
Biden should not run. His current -10 favorability only compares historically with Bush Sr., Carter, and Trump in their first term, and they all lost. And Harris is even worse.
Trump also is widely unpopular but in polling he only trails Biden in a head to head in national popular vote by 2 percentage points (RCP aggregate) and if you look at 2016 and 2020 given the R advantage in the EC, the Dem needs to win by +3-4 (Hillary lost at +3, Biden won a close race at +4.5).
Worse, Biden loses to DeSantis in the head to head.
I started a FB group called Roy Cooper for President in 2024. Cooper is my governor in NC, won twice in a lean red state, soft spoken, popular, and historically governors have outperformed Senators and VPs. Another popular Dem governor in the heartland is Andy Bashear in KY who won in a state that went for Trump with 62% of the vote.
Dems have always done better with younger energetic candidates- JFK, Carter, B Clinton, Obama. Trump if he is nominated would be the oldest candidate except for one Joe Biden
There is no job that compares to the physical and psychological demands that the Presidency imposes. If geriatric medicine and psychology have revealed anything about aging, it is that physical and cognitive function declines measurably in the elderly long before their ninth decade of life which begins at age 81.
Moreover, we have three historical examples of that deterioration in Presidents who served in times of crisis.
When elected to a third in 1940 term Franklin Roosevelt was clearly in steep mental and physical decline. Woodrow Wilson, blessed with an acute intelligence as a younger man, clearly was not up to the demands of creating a just and endurable peace at the end of WW I. More recently, Ronald Reagan, in his second term, had manifestly impaired judgment. Would a younger Republican President have avoided the disaster of Irangate? The question is unanswerable. But clearly Reagan no longer had the mental acuity to judge the constitutional risks that the Iran-Conra conspiracy imposed.
Finally , it is at least conceivable that other Democrats would refuse to yield to Biden, thus creating a protracted and bitter primary race that could only benefit Donald Trump. Truly for the ambitious and successful, retiring with grace and dignity is life’s one of life’s most difficult decision. Only those cursed to die young avoid it.
Previously, I wrote.
"The obvious solution is for Biden to replace Harris and then step down (making his appointed VP, President). This would be both Constitutional and well-received (at least by some Democrats). Will he do it? I rather doubt it. Biden seems doomed to be Jimmy Carter II."
Still the best choice for the Democrats. An Open Democratic Primary would be good only for the Republicans.
Given the state of the primary system, the self-immolation wing of the Democratic Party is very likely to push for and get a candidate left of center in a right of center country. There is also the possibility of Republicans voting in Democrat primaries in an effort to push the choice to the left as some Democrats did in 2022 to promote candidates on the far right. It almost makes one long for the smoke filled rooms of the old days.
Also, with Robert Kennedy dead, did the Democrats have any choices beyond HHH in 1968 who could on a good day with a significant tail wind defeat RMN?