Biden should not run. His current -10 favorability only compares historically with Bush Sr., Carter, and Trump in their first term, and they all lost. And Harris is even worse.
Trump also is widely unpopular but in polling he only trails Biden in a head to head in national popular vote by 2 percentage points (RCP aggregate) and if you look at 2016 and 2020 given the R advantage in the EC, the Dem needs to win by +3-4 (Hillary lost at +3, Biden won a close race at +4.5).
Worse, Biden loses to DeSantis in the head to head.
I started a FB group called Roy Cooper for President in 2024. Cooper is my governor in NC, won twice in a lean red state, soft spoken, popular, and historically governors have outperformed Senators and VPs. Another popular Dem governor in the heartland is Andy Bashear in KY who won in a state that went for Trump with 62% of the vote.
Dems have always done better with younger energetic candidates- JFK, Carter, B Clinton, Obama. Trump if he is nominated would be the oldest candidate except for one Joe Biden
There is no job that compares to the physical and psychological demands that the Presidency imposes. If geriatric medicine and psychology have revealed anything about aging, it is that physical and cognitive function declines measurably in the elderly long before their ninth decade of life which begins at age 81.
Moreover, we have three historical examples of that deterioration in Presidents who served in times of crisis.
When elected to a third in 1940 term Franklin Roosevelt was clearly in steep mental and physical decline. Woodrow Wilson, blessed with an acute intelligence as a younger man, clearly was not up to the demands of creating a just and endurable peace at the end of WW I. More recently, Ronald Reagan, in his second term, had manifestly impaired judgment. Would a younger Republican President have avoided the disaster of Irangate? The question is unanswerable. But clearly Reagan no longer had the mental acuity to judge the constitutional risks that the Iran-Conra conspiracy imposed.
Finally , it is at least conceivable that other Democrats would refuse to yield to Biden, thus creating a protracted and bitter primary race that could only benefit Donald Trump. Truly for the ambitious and successful, retiring with grace and dignity is life’s one of life’s most difficult decision. Only those cursed to die young avoid it.
The Democrat party made the decision to run Biden and support he and Kamala for 2020. They can therefore make the decision to advance someone younger and more energetic. Kamala is not an option.
The Democratic Party has generally nominated the candidate who has won the most primary contests. The DNC has a group of convention super delegates representing the highest ranking elected state and federal officers.
After the chaos of the 1968 convention , the era of bestowing the Democratic nomination in dark smoke filled rooms by horse trading between factions has been effectively dead. No Democrat has been coronated since.
"The obvious solution is for Biden to replace Harris and then step down (making his appointed VP, President). This would be both Constitutional and well-received (at least by some Democrats). Will he do it? I rather doubt it. Biden seems doomed to be Jimmy Carter II."
Still the best choice for the Democrats. An Open Democratic Primary would be good only for the Republicans.
The Dems have a number of choices if those people chose to run. My favorites being the two governors Andy Bashear and Roy Cooper, but there also is Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Booker and more.
I dont think primaries necessarily hurt a party. That didnt happen in 2020 though you could argue it did in 2016. If Trump is the candidate, as bad as it might be for the country, it probably would help unite the Democrats.
In my opinion, the original author is properly wary of 2024 Democratic primaries. Such primaries would (probably) pit Harris against the 'others'. That would tend to hurt the Democrats. Consider 1980. Jimmy Carter was an incumbent President. Kennedy ran against him. Of course, Kennedy lost. However, eventually Jimmy Carter lost.
The difficulty in noting the poor performance of a sitting president after surviving a serious primary challenge, is that the reason they had a serious primary challenge in the first place, is that they were doing poorly which might be the real reason that incumbents lost. Incumbent losers since WW2 are Ford, Carter, Bush Sr. and Trump.
Of those four Bush and Trump had no serious challenger but lost while Ford and Carter were challenged
What is the more consistent finding is that regardless of being challenged they lose if they have poor approvals by the time of primary season. Biden has those poor approvals, so a primary challenge could hurt him, but if he runs and his ratings stay this bad, he is likely to lose.
Interesting fact- only four sitting presidents were successfully primaried- Tyler, Fillmore, Andrew Johnson, and the last in 1884- Chester Arthur.
Given the state of the primary system, the self-immolation wing of the Democratic Party is very likely to push for and get a candidate left of center in a right of center country. There is also the possibility of Republicans voting in Democrat primaries in an effort to push the choice to the left as some Democrats did in 2022 to promote candidates on the far right. It almost makes one long for the smoke filled rooms of the old days.
Also, with Robert Kennedy dead, did the Democrats have any choices beyond HHH in 1968 who could on a good day with a significant tail wind defeat RMN?
If the economy doesn't improve or worsens, and if the winter is severe and folks suffer from absurd energy policies, the Dems could have a hard time with anyone they put up.
Biden should not run. His current -10 favorability only compares historically with Bush Sr., Carter, and Trump in their first term, and they all lost. And Harris is even worse.
Trump also is widely unpopular but in polling he only trails Biden in a head to head in national popular vote by 2 percentage points (RCP aggregate) and if you look at 2016 and 2020 given the R advantage in the EC, the Dem needs to win by +3-4 (Hillary lost at +3, Biden won a close race at +4.5).
Worse, Biden loses to DeSantis in the head to head.
I started a FB group called Roy Cooper for President in 2024. Cooper is my governor in NC, won twice in a lean red state, soft spoken, popular, and historically governors have outperformed Senators and VPs. Another popular Dem governor in the heartland is Andy Bashear in KY who won in a state that went for Trump with 62% of the vote.
Dems have always done better with younger energetic candidates- JFK, Carter, B Clinton, Obama. Trump if he is nominated would be the oldest candidate except for one Joe Biden
There is no job that compares to the physical and psychological demands that the Presidency imposes. If geriatric medicine and psychology have revealed anything about aging, it is that physical and cognitive function declines measurably in the elderly long before their ninth decade of life which begins at age 81.
Moreover, we have three historical examples of that deterioration in Presidents who served in times of crisis.
When elected to a third in 1940 term Franklin Roosevelt was clearly in steep mental and physical decline. Woodrow Wilson, blessed with an acute intelligence as a younger man, clearly was not up to the demands of creating a just and endurable peace at the end of WW I. More recently, Ronald Reagan, in his second term, had manifestly impaired judgment. Would a younger Republican President have avoided the disaster of Irangate? The question is unanswerable. But clearly Reagan no longer had the mental acuity to judge the constitutional risks that the Iran-Conra conspiracy imposed.
Finally , it is at least conceivable that other Democrats would refuse to yield to Biden, thus creating a protracted and bitter primary race that could only benefit Donald Trump. Truly for the ambitious and successful, retiring with grace and dignity is life’s one of life’s most difficult decision. Only those cursed to die young avoid it.
The Democrat party made the decision to run Biden and support he and Kamala for 2020. They can therefore make the decision to advance someone younger and more energetic. Kamala is not an option.
The Democratic Party has generally nominated the candidate who has won the most primary contests. The DNC has a group of convention super delegates representing the highest ranking elected state and federal officers.
After the chaos of the 1968 convention , the era of bestowing the Democratic nomination in dark smoke filled rooms by horse trading between factions has been effectively dead. No Democrat has been coronated since.
Previously, I wrote.
"The obvious solution is for Biden to replace Harris and then step down (making his appointed VP, President). This would be both Constitutional and well-received (at least by some Democrats). Will he do it? I rather doubt it. Biden seems doomed to be Jimmy Carter II."
Still the best choice for the Democrats. An Open Democratic Primary would be good only for the Republicans.
The Dems have a number of choices if those people chose to run. My favorites being the two governors Andy Bashear and Roy Cooper, but there also is Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Booker and more.
I dont think primaries necessarily hurt a party. That didnt happen in 2020 though you could argue it did in 2016. If Trump is the candidate, as bad as it might be for the country, it probably would help unite the Democrats.
In my opinion, the original author is properly wary of 2024 Democratic primaries. Such primaries would (probably) pit Harris against the 'others'. That would tend to hurt the Democrats. Consider 1980. Jimmy Carter was an incumbent President. Kennedy ran against him. Of course, Kennedy lost. However, eventually Jimmy Carter lost.
The difficulty in noting the poor performance of a sitting president after surviving a serious primary challenge, is that the reason they had a serious primary challenge in the first place, is that they were doing poorly which might be the real reason that incumbents lost. Incumbent losers since WW2 are Ford, Carter, Bush Sr. and Trump.
Of those four Bush and Trump had no serious challenger but lost while Ford and Carter were challenged
What is the more consistent finding is that regardless of being challenged they lose if they have poor approvals by the time of primary season. Biden has those poor approvals, so a primary challenge could hurt him, but if he runs and his ratings stay this bad, he is likely to lose.
Interesting fact- only four sitting presidents were successfully primaried- Tyler, Fillmore, Andrew Johnson, and the last in 1884- Chester Arthur.
Given the state of the primary system, the self-immolation wing of the Democratic Party is very likely to push for and get a candidate left of center in a right of center country. There is also the possibility of Republicans voting in Democrat primaries in an effort to push the choice to the left as some Democrats did in 2022 to promote candidates on the far right. It almost makes one long for the smoke filled rooms of the old days.
Also, with Robert Kennedy dead, did the Democrats have any choices beyond HHH in 1968 who could on a good day with a significant tail wind defeat RMN?
If the economy doesn't improve or worsens, and if the winter is severe and folks suffer from absurd energy policies, the Dems could have a hard time with anyone they put up.