From Georgian Dream to Georgian Nightmare
As the country slides into full authoritarianism, it is time for the international community to act.
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Georgia teeters on the brink of tyranny, with all the classic hallmarks in clear view: the consolidation of power under a single authority/individual, the stifling of dissent, the erosion of civil liberties and freedom of speech, and a campaign of fear, violence, and manipulation that includes the imprisonment of journalists and opposition figures. This has happened, in the words of Ernest Hemingway, “gradually and then suddenly,” beginning during the last decade, and intensifying since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But the impact of an authoritarian Georgia will be felt beyond its borders.
Georgian Dream, the ruling party funded by the oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili, came to power in 2012 in the name of democracy. It promised to improve Georgian statecraft and continue its European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Early on, however, the Georgian Dream-led government gradually began its project of state capture. The entire process was justified by terms like “legalistic sovereignism” (very similar to Vladimir Putin’s “sovereign democracy”) or “populistic patriotism,” and was fueled by a desire for political retribution against the previous pro-Western government. Georgian society was already polarized, and the Georgian Dream government exacerbated this divide under the informal guidance of Ivanishvili and his Russian backers.
The “suddenly” phase started in 2022, after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, when the government shifted to full-fledged anti-Westernism, with the intention of curbing free speech and prohibiting opposition political parties. Arrests of their leaders were announced in 2024 by Bidzina Ivanishvili himself in his pre-election speech on April 29—a speech directed at the party’s Russian patrons rather than the Georgian public.
Following the sham parliamentary elections in October 2024, Georgian Dream cemented its power in a rigged election, reminiscent of Vladimir Putin, Viktor Orbán, Nicolás Maduro, and handful of other authoritarians. The emboldened Georgian Dream government then proceeded to shift to a full authoritarian system, following the steps of a constitutional coup d’etat almost to the letter: introducing electoral reforms; convening a rigged parliament; curtailing free speech; arresting opposition leaders and journalists; and suppressing civil society organizations. Moreover, the Georgian Dream has conspired with Russia to manipulate elections and achieve legitimization.
You do not need to be an expert in Georgia to understand how this last phase of full authoritarianism is unfolding now. Simply scroll the news headlines of one of the most credible English media outlets, civil.ge: “Kobakhidze [PM] Says ODIHR Monitoring of Local Elections ‘Unnecessary’,” “Georgian Dream to restrict media coverage in courts,” “Major opposition political figures jailed for 8-month terms”—these are just a handful of the headlines recording the country’s descent. Transparency International Georgia, which like other NGOs critical of the government is under heavy coercion, continues to document Georgia’s journey to dictatorship.
A more complex question is: how is Russian-style kleptocratic authoritarianism sustainable in a country which was recently at war with Russia, has 20% of its territory occupied by Russia, and where 80% of its population is in favor of Western liberal democracy? The answer is economics. The same headlines are filled with positive stories that explain how this “sustainable authoritarianism” survives: “Foreign Trade Up 13.3% in January-May 2025,” or “Georgia’s GDP Up by 9.8% in Q1’25.”
Such numbers suggest that the regime has another source of income—helping countries such as Russia, China, and Iran bypass sanctions by trading with them. This service has become even more valuable after Russia was sanctioned for the war in Ukraine. As in the Russian playbook, this process generates resources to lubricate state capture through corruption. All this is managed and controlled by the special services, law enforcement, and organized criminal groups and their affiliates. This also explains why the Georgian Dream announced a formal strategic partnership with the Chinese Communist Party and Georgian Dream’s prime minister feels no discomfort sitting in the room in Tehran when the audience is chanting “death to America, death to Israel.”
So far, Russia is winning the strategic battle against the West in Georgia. The Georgian Dream regime has burned all the remaining bridges to the West. The last unfinished task from the government’s perspective is for the Georgian public to admit these policy changes are a fait accompli and for the West to not complain. This has not happened yet due to the over 200 days of non-stop protests and resistance on the part of the Georgian public and limited, but still effective, sanctions by the United States, UK, and other European countries against Bidzina Ivanishvili and his network of enablers. These measures have had some adverse effects on the cohesion of the ruling system. They have also necessitated that the Russian government and the Georgian Dream regime regroup to cope with international isolation. At one point, Ivanishvili arrested his most trusted business partner on allegations of fraud. Recently, key government figures were dismissed. All of them, fully loyal to Ivanishvili and vetted by Russians, such as the former prime minister, security chiefs, interior ministers, prosecutors general, and economy ministers, are under Western sanctions. Additionally, high-level arrests, including that of the deputy economy minister for significant corruption charges, indicate an effort to address systemic corruption related to handling Ivanishvili’s—and Russian—money. This period represents a rare moment of transitional vulnerability for the regime.
Therefore, there is an urgent need for the United States, UK, and EU to impose all-encompassing political and financial pressure. Georgian Dream has tried to gamble on the Trump administration, and lost. Currently, the United States is leading these efforts, as demonstrated by the strong bipartisan support for the MEGOBARI Act, the legislation that has passed the House by absolute bipartisan majority (345/42), and is waiting to be passed in the Senate. If enacted and enforced with financial and travel sanctions targeting key members of the Georgian ruling elite, it is expected to significantly alter the country’s political trajectory. If action is taken quickly, sanctions would likely create short-term volatility, fracture regime consolidation, embolden the remaining civil resistance, and ultimately trigger democratic reset. While the previous sanctions remain in place, the United States must take further action on tackling the anti-American regime in this strategically important region. To avoid entrenchment of authoritarianism, the EU and UK must in tandem take similar steps.
If implemented, this could be the most powerful and surgical strike to save Georgia from the catastrophe it is now facing. Each day wasted brings the Georgian Nightmare closer.
Batu Kutelia is a Senior Fellow at Delphi Global. He is a former ambassador of the Republic of Georgia to the United States, and has held senior defense, security, and intelligence positions in Georgia.
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