Germany faces at least three crises (other than energy) going forwards, all of its own making. Germany in its current form may or may not survive them, much less thrive.
It was inevitable that China would move up the manufacturing food chain and start to produce goods that were/are (highly) competitive with German goods. For a while, the China boom was actually good for Germany (and bad for Italy). Germany (to a degree) specializes in capital goods and China needed those goods to industrialize. Italy (to a degree) specializes in consumer goods and faced Chinese competition earlier on. Did Germany see the freight train coming? Of course, not.
Germany has (via mass immigration) managed to import the racial problems of the USA. The details are different. The results will be similar. Germany will have to deal with a large population that fails in Germany society and blames Germany for its problems. To date, ‘woke’ is a distinctly Anglo-sphere disease. For better or worse (almost certainly worse) it is Germany’s future.
The Euro works well for Germany, but is a Procrustean bed for Club Med. Either the Euro must be abandoned, or Germany must embrace a permanent debt and transfer union. The next financial crisis will bring this problem to a head. In some respects, Covid-19 already has.
Traditionally Germany was politically divided between the CDU/CSU coalition and the SDP with the Free Democrats playing a small role. However, now Germany has the Greens on the 'left' and the AfD on the 'right'. Similar schisms can be found in places as dissimilar as Scotland, the USA, France, Sweden, Italy, etc.
1. I have emphasized the green / AfD schism in Germany. For Americans, think of Claudine Gay vs. Donald Trump. The analogy is far from perfect, but not entirely wrong either.
2. Merkel got everything wrong. Some of her errors were immediately apparent. Why Germany should import racial problems was never apparent. But she went out of her way to do so. Of course, Russian gas has proven to be very dangerous as well. The dangers of Russian gas have taken longer to blow up, but Merkel felt that she had to appease the ‘green’ lobby. Of course, the results have been a disaster. Note that ‘investment’ in solar power (in Germany) boomed under Merkel. Perhaps she should have noticed that Germany is a Northern, cloudy country. But she was PC and solar is PC.
3. A good overall statistic is that German prices for electricity are more than double that of the U.S.
Political elites in the US and Europe have no more of a nuanced understanding of the desire of people who provide actual goods and services to continue to provide those actual goods and services than G. B. Shaw when he visited the Soviet Union and proclaimed it to be a "workers paradise".
Do you think these consequences are really unintended? Zealots want change, fast and are prepared to pursue that no matter what. They know there will be kick-back and disruption to lives and institutions. Hamas knew that when they planned October 7th. German ecowarriors know that too.
The sooner we accept that this is not passing youthful rebellion but true anarchic intent, the sooner we will have a real debate and the voices of all citizens will be heard and heeded. Then we might get some sense. Right now, we have a phony war.
We need more thinking of environmental problems as problems to be solved, and less of thinking of them as sins to do penance for.
Germany faces at least three crises (other than energy) going forwards, all of its own making. Germany in its current form may or may not survive them, much less thrive.
It was inevitable that China would move up the manufacturing food chain and start to produce goods that were/are (highly) competitive with German goods. For a while, the China boom was actually good for Germany (and bad for Italy). Germany (to a degree) specializes in capital goods and China needed those goods to industrialize. Italy (to a degree) specializes in consumer goods and faced Chinese competition earlier on. Did Germany see the freight train coming? Of course, not.
Germany has (via mass immigration) managed to import the racial problems of the USA. The details are different. The results will be similar. Germany will have to deal with a large population that fails in Germany society and blames Germany for its problems. To date, ‘woke’ is a distinctly Anglo-sphere disease. For better or worse (almost certainly worse) it is Germany’s future.
The Euro works well for Germany, but is a Procrustean bed for Club Med. Either the Euro must be abandoned, or Germany must embrace a permanent debt and transfer union. The next financial crisis will bring this problem to a head. In some respects, Covid-19 already has.
Traditionally Germany was politically divided between the CDU/CSU coalition and the SDP with the Free Democrats playing a small role. However, now Germany has the Greens on the 'left' and the AfD on the 'right'. Similar schisms can be found in places as dissimilar as Scotland, the USA, France, Sweden, Italy, etc.
Wonderful article. Thank you
A few more notes.
1. I have emphasized the green / AfD schism in Germany. For Americans, think of Claudine Gay vs. Donald Trump. The analogy is far from perfect, but not entirely wrong either.
2. Merkel got everything wrong. Some of her errors were immediately apparent. Why Germany should import racial problems was never apparent. But she went out of her way to do so. Of course, Russian gas has proven to be very dangerous as well. The dangers of Russian gas have taken longer to blow up, but Merkel felt that she had to appease the ‘green’ lobby. Of course, the results have been a disaster. Note that ‘investment’ in solar power (in Germany) boomed under Merkel. Perhaps she should have noticed that Germany is a Northern, cloudy country. But she was PC and solar is PC.
3. A good overall statistic is that German prices for electricity are more than double that of the U.S.
Political elites in the US and Europe have no more of a nuanced understanding of the desire of people who provide actual goods and services to continue to provide those actual goods and services than G. B. Shaw when he visited the Soviet Union and proclaimed it to be a "workers paradise".
Do you think these consequences are really unintended? Zealots want change, fast and are prepared to pursue that no matter what. They know there will be kick-back and disruption to lives and institutions. Hamas knew that when they planned October 7th. German ecowarriors know that too.
The sooner we accept that this is not passing youthful rebellion but true anarchic intent, the sooner we will have a real debate and the voices of all citizens will be heard and heeded. Then we might get some sense. Right now, we have a phony war.