"Look, I can’t tell you when and how exactly this all comes to a head." And neither can anyone else. I do wonder if on the drive to the office each morning, Chairman Powell asks himself, "Well, is this the day we won't be able to sell a ten year note at any price or one we could possibly accept?
How about AI? Isn’t this the wild card in our future that can save us? Isn’t this what China sees and why they’re totally committed to AI, humanoid robots and automation everywhere with some form of UBI to keep their people afloat and then rapidly get much betțer? Many say AI is scary but what terrifies me is living in a world run by people like Xi (admires Mao), Biden (dementia) and Trump who I voted for 3 times but has been downhill since the election. But wouldn’t a super intelligent AI consider us inferior beings and treat us accordingly? People are far more intelligent than their cats and dogs yet consider them family rather than just pets. I’d be very happy if the AI treated us the way I treat my cats. That’d be great for us all.
“Ilya Sutskever Calls for SuperAlignment Before Data Centers Evolve Into Artificial Life.” (8 min)
I am a longtime private wealth manager, one of those ''wonky finance guys' who gets it. THIS explains EXACTLY what the real problem is, wonky finance people like me keep saying it, but it’s hard for others to grasp exactly why it’s so worrisome. People worry most about the social issues, those can be changed as people vote, but once we lose our role as the world’s bank, the world’s reserve currency, we won’t get it back and the results, especially combined with 36 trillion dollars of national debt (and growing by 3 trillion a year) will be absolutely disastrous in a way few people can imagine.
You need to have some of your assets outside the USA, outside of our banking system, and not in dollars. That’s ‘what you can do about it’ plain and simple.
Buy Russian bonds now. Before they exceed the value of US Bonds. OR World Liberty Financial, Trump's non-fungible token. As the value of the dollar decreases, the return on these other financial entities will increase. Great plan, Don.
Firstly if the Fed lowers interest rates (the Fed overnight rate) it has absolutely zero impact on longer rates which the US government will have to pay when they issue bonds. Now if we are talking about the Fed buying bonds to keep longer term rates low then why don't we just say that when we are talking about it. Just because Trump doesn't understand it, doesn't mean we have to stay in his simple and wrong narrative.
Secondly, can we all stop talking about privilege and victimhood? It's frankly nauseating. Dollar privilege ? As if it was unearned.
I don’t dispute that. Ask Xi Jinping if he gives the Governor of the People’s Bank of China free reign. Or if he makes sure that fiscal and monetary and a whole host of other policies and initiatives are coordinated for the benefit of the CCP. I of course recognize that we are talking about Donald Trump which is an entirely different animal.
Fantasies and fairy tales never last. Gravity cannot be dreamed away. Remember Alan Greenspan's trenchant advice about "irrational exuberance." We are experiencing a period of economic and monetary angelology. Yet angels do not exist, even though demonic thinking certainly does. The red light is flashing and we are all speeding.
Nobody can sound the alarm too often about this threat. One of the biggest challenges is that political partisans only recognize how bad the debt problem is when they are out of power. Setting aside the giant issue of entitlements, much of the debt threat can be traced back to the Ben Bernanke era and the invention of quantitative easing. The strategy worked very well and if we had left it there our problems might be more manageable.
Unfortunately, politicians of both parties abandoned fiscal responsibility in favor of monetary magic. As Quico correctly observes, we as a nation have abused the almost providential gift of having the world’s reserve currency. Anyone can go to the St. Louis Fed’s website to peruse the charts showing the size of the Fed’s balanced sheet since 2008, the quantity of federal debt, the growth of interest payments, and so forth. We have been in a state of collective denial for which the entire leadership class and their partisans supporters are responsible. There is a lot of blame to spread around. Fortunately, we are finally seeing a recognition of the problem here and in the NYT.
The ongoing slow demise of both America (Trump) and The City of London (Brexit) as major global financial centres is part of the war being waged by BRICS oligarchs. They have long since infiltrated both countries political class and their Intelligence as the smug cultural entropy created by 49 years of unfettered deregulated wealth creation gave them easy open access. Putin and his collegues just had to became even wealthier and class control was theirs.
Historically, such power grabs always descend into hot conflicts on the ground. It will be interesting (in a may you live in interesting times way) watching how America and Great Britain cope with warfare on their land masses.
This is a great post. Nobody should be complacent about their countries continuing economic dominance when their leader is behaving worse an s hole country dictator . Stop the steal gimme a break America. He is hell bent on satisfying his donors and deplorable base. This man has zero idea of Wtf he’s talking about and all of his enablers might not stop him. One thing democrats can do read Krugmans excellent Depression Economics for detail about currency crisis
There are many economic indicators that would back a move to lower the Fed rate. Examples include the dollar declining relative to other currencies. Hiring is trending down. Democrat-caused "transitory" inflation happened, and consumer debt has exploded. The change to benefits requiring work. Tariff impacts. AI impacts. All of these things are being ignored by Powell, and the clear indication is that Powell is yet another establishment Regime anti-Trump traitor in government.
"Look, I can’t tell you when and how exactly this all comes to a head." And neither can anyone else. I do wonder if on the drive to the office each morning, Chairman Powell asks himself, "Well, is this the day we won't be able to sell a ten year note at any price or one we could possibly accept?
How about AI? Isn’t this the wild card in our future that can save us? Isn’t this what China sees and why they’re totally committed to AI, humanoid robots and automation everywhere with some form of UBI to keep their people afloat and then rapidly get much betțer? Many say AI is scary but what terrifies me is living in a world run by people like Xi (admires Mao), Biden (dementia) and Trump who I voted for 3 times but has been downhill since the election. But wouldn’t a super intelligent AI consider us inferior beings and treat us accordingly? People are far more intelligent than their cats and dogs yet consider them family rather than just pets. I’d be very happy if the AI treated us the way I treat my cats. That’d be great for us all.
“Ilya Sutskever Calls for SuperAlignment Before Data Centers Evolve Into Artificial Life.” (8 min)
Financial Wise. May 20, 2025
https://youtu.be/n13GppYIMg4?si=UQ3PAU45dqcOUZv0
“The One Problem That Could Break China.” (1 min)
Dwarkesh Patel interviews Ken Rogoff. Jul 9, 2025
https://youtube.com/shorts/PgSIcwUiOVc?si=UOTSqeiqRTsyzlrO
I am a longtime private wealth manager, one of those ''wonky finance guys' who gets it. THIS explains EXACTLY what the real problem is, wonky finance people like me keep saying it, but it’s hard for others to grasp exactly why it’s so worrisome. People worry most about the social issues, those can be changed as people vote, but once we lose our role as the world’s bank, the world’s reserve currency, we won’t get it back and the results, especially combined with 36 trillion dollars of national debt (and growing by 3 trillion a year) will be absolutely disastrous in a way few people can imagine.
You need to have some of your assets outside the USA, outside of our banking system, and not in dollars. That’s ‘what you can do about it’ plain and simple.
HRL
Buy Russian bonds now. Before they exceed the value of US Bonds. OR World Liberty Financial, Trump's non-fungible token. As the value of the dollar decreases, the return on these other financial entities will increase. Great plan, Don.
Hah
Firstly if the Fed lowers interest rates (the Fed overnight rate) it has absolutely zero impact on longer rates which the US government will have to pay when they issue bonds. Now if we are talking about the Fed buying bonds to keep longer term rates low then why don't we just say that when we are talking about it. Just because Trump doesn't understand it, doesn't mean we have to stay in his simple and wrong narrative.
Secondly, can we all stop talking about privilege and victimhood? It's frankly nauseating. Dollar privilege ? As if it was unearned.
Ask your nearest Turk how consequence free it is when the President starts dictating monetary rate policy to the Central Bank...
I don’t dispute that. Ask Xi Jinping if he gives the Governor of the People’s Bank of China free reign. Or if he makes sure that fiscal and monetary and a whole host of other policies and initiatives are coordinated for the benefit of the CCP. I of course recognize that we are talking about Donald Trump which is an entirely different animal.
Well yeah it was earned but it no longer is actually being earned
Agree
Fantasies and fairy tales never last. Gravity cannot be dreamed away. Remember Alan Greenspan's trenchant advice about "irrational exuberance." We are experiencing a period of economic and monetary angelology. Yet angels do not exist, even though demonic thinking certainly does. The red light is flashing and we are all speeding.
Nobody can sound the alarm too often about this threat. One of the biggest challenges is that political partisans only recognize how bad the debt problem is when they are out of power. Setting aside the giant issue of entitlements, much of the debt threat can be traced back to the Ben Bernanke era and the invention of quantitative easing. The strategy worked very well and if we had left it there our problems might be more manageable.
Unfortunately, politicians of both parties abandoned fiscal responsibility in favor of monetary magic. As Quico correctly observes, we as a nation have abused the almost providential gift of having the world’s reserve currency. Anyone can go to the St. Louis Fed’s website to peruse the charts showing the size of the Fed’s balanced sheet since 2008, the quantity of federal debt, the growth of interest payments, and so forth. We have been in a state of collective denial for which the entire leadership class and their partisans supporters are responsible. There is a lot of blame to spread around. Fortunately, we are finally seeing a recognition of the problem here and in the NYT.
The ongoing slow demise of both America (Trump) and The City of London (Brexit) as major global financial centres is part of the war being waged by BRICS oligarchs. They have long since infiltrated both countries political class and their Intelligence as the smug cultural entropy created by 49 years of unfettered deregulated wealth creation gave them easy open access. Putin and his collegues just had to became even wealthier and class control was theirs.
Historically, such power grabs always descend into hot conflicts on the ground. It will be interesting (in a may you live in interesting times way) watching how America and Great Britain cope with warfare on their land masses.
The only good thing about trump is that he is a hate driven person. He will never accept Chinese supremacy and he will do anything to prevent it 😳
This is a great post. Nobody should be complacent about their countries continuing economic dominance when their leader is behaving worse an s hole country dictator . Stop the steal gimme a break America. He is hell bent on satisfying his donors and deplorable base. This man has zero idea of Wtf he’s talking about and all of his enablers might not stop him. One thing democrats can do read Krugmans excellent Depression Economics for detail about currency crisis
This is the third different piece I've come across today on this very topic.
I'm worrying more....
There are many economic indicators that would back a move to lower the Fed rate. Examples include the dollar declining relative to other currencies. Hiring is trending down. Democrat-caused "transitory" inflation happened, and consumer debt has exploded. The change to benefits requiring work. Tariff impacts. AI impacts. All of these things are being ignored by Powell, and the clear indication is that Powell is yet another establishment Regime anti-Trump traitor in government.
Frank your next gig is Fed Chair . Are you a Fox News host!? Then buddy you are set to squeeze by the confirmation hearing 😳😁🤪😊