Putin remains popular in Russia. The number one song in Russia today is “I am Russian”, a defiant, upbeat patriotic rock anthem. Prigozhin has landed on his feet in Belarus and is now much closer to Kiev than ever with his troops. I’m honestly curious, do you even follow news from Russia? Or does all your information come from your ideological fellow travelers and old American crime series?
From the year the USSR exploded Russia’s first hydrogen bomb until its disintegration followed by the collapse of the Yeltsin regime and the rise of Putin, I have read endless news stories and “Foreign Policy” essays on the great strength and power of the Russian state and why America must forever increase our military spending and the funding of the CIA and what is now Homeland Security to preserve our own security.
The first indication of how mistaken our intelligence services and the military were in judging Russian Power was that during the years from the Cuban Missile Crisis until the collapse of the USSR after the fall of the Berlin Wall, no annual threat assessment of Russia by the U.S. ever saw the collapse of the Soviet Union coming. We heard only about great missile gaps, and falling democratic dominoes in Asia. Truly, Russia was instead one giant Potemkin Village based on the illusion it was still what it had once been .
For the last 15 months in the last three days since the Wagner Group marched up the road to Russia only to suddenly detour to Belarus, President Biden has only cautiously and incrementally provided advanced weapons, materiel and logistical support to Ukraine after NATO countries forced his hand. He still feared that Putin would push that launch button leading to nuclear armageddon or somehow despite his military losses and mass emigration of hundreds of thousands of young men and families , Biden worried he would somehow launchcruise missile and bomber assaults on NATO countries.
Can it be possible that any full time U.S. government intelligence agency or military strategists actually believes that those insane possibilities are even thinkable for Putin. Only if Putin is left no exit from his disastrous invasion or if Ukraine should take the war over the border into “mother Russia” will Putin look to the final scene of Dr. Strangelove as his only option.
We are talking today about an erstwhile world power who now assaults Ukraine with donated drones from Iran and the private militias of the Wagner terrorist group and the terrorist fighters donated by the overlord of Chechnya. So long as we leave Putin’s fate to his Russian subordinates and we fully support only a defensive war in Ukraine by the Ukrainian military using the full array of modern weapons, Putin’s fate will be determined entirely by when Russian politicians and military no longer fear him. The real and present danger is a Russian Civil war to determine whom the next Czar will be. The possibility of a peaceful transition to power to the next autocrat seems impossible to imagine.
Anyone who tries to predict what Putin and Russia will do should consult Churchill's description of Russia as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." Churchill's assessment is, perhaps, truer today than it was in September 1939. Nevertheless, the US and NATO must do contingency planning that includes the collapse of Russian forces in the Ukraine triggering desperation moves by Putin.
Few people in the West seem to have much insight into or understanding of what happens in Russia. Francisco Toro being no exception.
Putin remains popular in Russia. The number one song in Russia today is “I am Russian”, a defiant, upbeat patriotic rock anthem. Prigozhin has landed on his feet in Belarus and is now much closer to Kiev than ever with his troops. I’m honestly curious, do you even follow news from Russia? Or does all your information come from your ideological fellow travelers and old American crime series?
From the year the USSR exploded Russia’s first hydrogen bomb until its disintegration followed by the collapse of the Yeltsin regime and the rise of Putin, I have read endless news stories and “Foreign Policy” essays on the great strength and power of the Russian state and why America must forever increase our military spending and the funding of the CIA and what is now Homeland Security to preserve our own security.
The first indication of how mistaken our intelligence services and the military were in judging Russian Power was that during the years from the Cuban Missile Crisis until the collapse of the USSR after the fall of the Berlin Wall, no annual threat assessment of Russia by the U.S. ever saw the collapse of the Soviet Union coming. We heard only about great missile gaps, and falling democratic dominoes in Asia. Truly, Russia was instead one giant Potemkin Village based on the illusion it was still what it had once been .
For the last 15 months in the last three days since the Wagner Group marched up the road to Russia only to suddenly detour to Belarus, President Biden has only cautiously and incrementally provided advanced weapons, materiel and logistical support to Ukraine after NATO countries forced his hand. He still feared that Putin would push that launch button leading to nuclear armageddon or somehow despite his military losses and mass emigration of hundreds of thousands of young men and families , Biden worried he would somehow launchcruise missile and bomber assaults on NATO countries.
Can it be possible that any full time U.S. government intelligence agency or military strategists actually believes that those insane possibilities are even thinkable for Putin. Only if Putin is left no exit from his disastrous invasion or if Ukraine should take the war over the border into “mother Russia” will Putin look to the final scene of Dr. Strangelove as his only option.
We are talking today about an erstwhile world power who now assaults Ukraine with donated drones from Iran and the private militias of the Wagner terrorist group and the terrorist fighters donated by the overlord of Chechnya. So long as we leave Putin’s fate to his Russian subordinates and we fully support only a defensive war in Ukraine by the Ukrainian military using the full array of modern weapons, Putin’s fate will be determined entirely by when Russian politicians and military no longer fear him. The real and present danger is a Russian Civil war to determine whom the next Czar will be. The possibility of a peaceful transition to power to the next autocrat seems impossible to imagine.
Anyone who tries to predict what Putin and Russia will do should consult Churchill's description of Russia as "a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma." Churchill's assessment is, perhaps, truer today than it was in September 1939. Nevertheless, the US and NATO must do contingency planning that includes the collapse of Russian forces in the Ukraine triggering desperation moves by Putin.
Well done.