The past couple of weeks have been particularly tumultuous, both for the United States, and for me personally. I don’t need to contribute to the already massive commentary on the first Biden-Trump debate, whether Biden should pull out of the race, and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump (my answers would be completely unremarkable: yes the debate indicated that Biden is too old; yes he should drop out of the race; and yes, it was very bad that someone resorted to violence to affect the outcome of the election). The net result of these developments has been to greatly increase the likelihood of Donald Trump returning to the White House next January.