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Peter Schaeffer's avatar

Like it or not, the liberal, international order is dying.

In 1968, it was fair to say that the US had an effective government and other countries did not.

In 2022, this isn’t so clear. Let me use one of my favorite examples. California tried to build a high-speed rail line and failed. Costs in 2020 were estimated at $80 billion and possibly as high as $99.8 billion. The project collapsed under its own weight (cost). The nation of Spain built an HSR from Madrid to Barcelona at a cost of $6 billion. By coincidence, the distance is about the same.

Of course, California has substantial mountain ranges as you approach San Francisco (from the south) or Los Angeles (from the north). Conversely, the Central Valley of California is one of the flattest places on Earth (way flatter than Spain).

The details here are not really that important. The important fact is that the US/California is now a place where things don’t get done.

In 1968, the US was in the final stages of the Apollo program (which would succeed in 1969) and China was starting the debacle of the Cultural Revolution. Stated differently, the US was arguably among the most effective nations on Earth and China was among the least effective nations on Earth. What about now? My favorite line on this point is

“China is now very good at building dams. The US is now very good at enforcing PC. What country/system will dominate the 21st century?”

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Wayne Karol's avatar

Don't mistake disappointingly limited progress for none at all. Just to cite one example, the chances of Britain, France, and Germany going to war with each other in the foreseeable future are still as close to zero as humanly possible. Given European history, how remarkable is that?

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