Like it or not, the liberal, international order is dying.
In 1968, it was fair to say that the US had an effective government and other countries did not.
In 2022, this isn’t so clear. Let me use one of my favorite examples. California tried to build a high-speed rail line and failed. Costs in 2020 were estimated at $80 billion and possibly as high as $99.8 billion. The project collapsed under its own weight (cost). The nation of Spain built an HSR from Madrid to Barcelona at a cost of $6 billion. By coincidence, the distance is about the same.
Of course, California has substantial mountain ranges as you approach San Francisco (from the south) or Los Angeles (from the north). Conversely, the Central Valley of California is one of the flattest places on Earth (way flatter than Spain).
The details here are not really that important. The important fact is that the US/California is now a place where things don’t get done.
In 1968, the US was in the final stages of the Apollo program (which would succeed in 1969) and China was starting the debacle of the Cultural Revolution. Stated differently, the US was arguably among the most effective nations on Earth and China was among the least effective nations on Earth. What about now? My favorite line on this point is
“China is now very good at building dams. The US is now very good at enforcing PC. What country/system will dominate the 21st century?”
Don't mistake disappointingly limited progress for none at all. Just to cite one example, the chances of Britain, France, and Germany going to war with each other in the foreseeable future are still as close to zero as humanly possible. Given European history, how remarkable is that?
Who are you? This is a very general description of one view of American foreign policy. It lacks references, specifics and insight. Of course, it's fine for self-described political writers to post on Persuasion but at least link it to something relevant today
Summit of Democracy is a good start, but there are even better solutions and ideas such as starting a World Parliament elected by citizens globally. Sure that "realism" is not "dead" and that geopolitics and nationalist rivalry still exist. So all democrats (I mean humans supporting democracy) should united as world citizens for a world federation and united planet. After all, the struggle is not between civilisations nor even nations in general, but between ideas of digital democracy and digital dictatorship https://www.democracywithoutborders.org/
Taiwan will be the real test of the West. But even if we fail there - and the cards are stacked against us - growing world affluence in the 21st and 22nd centuries will empower middle-classes around the world. They'll choose liberal orders, in the main. Monomaniacal characters like Putin and Xi will fade.
With amazement I read Brian's Stewart's sentence „Through a range of methods, from moral suasion to material support, America helped cultivate the growth of democracy from South Korea to Poland.“
Among the methods by which the United States has conducted foreign policy since the middle of the 20th century are not least all the ugly wars that I would advise the author to count.
I am not persuaded that the Taiwan problem has much in common with the conflict over Ukraine. The one China policy did not spell out that Taiwan must remain independent. Nor is it in the interests of the Taiwanese to see their small nation destroyed in order to defend it. Indeed, Taiwan's economy is intertwined with China's, and if China were simply to nationalize the factories owned by Taiwan, that would do great damage to the Taiwanese economy.
I do not know what the solution to the Taiwan problem will be. But there is no military solution that makes any sense. The 19th century dominance of China by Japan and the West is fresh in Chinese minds. And it should be. An American hegemony simply cannot be tolerated.
Like it or not, the liberal, international order is dying.
In 1968, it was fair to say that the US had an effective government and other countries did not.
In 2022, this isn’t so clear. Let me use one of my favorite examples. California tried to build a high-speed rail line and failed. Costs in 2020 were estimated at $80 billion and possibly as high as $99.8 billion. The project collapsed under its own weight (cost). The nation of Spain built an HSR from Madrid to Barcelona at a cost of $6 billion. By coincidence, the distance is about the same.
Of course, California has substantial mountain ranges as you approach San Francisco (from the south) or Los Angeles (from the north). Conversely, the Central Valley of California is one of the flattest places on Earth (way flatter than Spain).
The details here are not really that important. The important fact is that the US/California is now a place where things don’t get done.
In 1968, the US was in the final stages of the Apollo program (which would succeed in 1969) and China was starting the debacle of the Cultural Revolution. Stated differently, the US was arguably among the most effective nations on Earth and China was among the least effective nations on Earth. What about now? My favorite line on this point is
“China is now very good at building dams. The US is now very good at enforcing PC. What country/system will dominate the 21st century?”
Don't mistake disappointingly limited progress for none at all. Just to cite one example, the chances of Britain, France, and Germany going to war with each other in the foreseeable future are still as close to zero as humanly possible. Given European history, how remarkable is that?
Who are you? This is a very general description of one view of American foreign policy. It lacks references, specifics and insight. Of course, it's fine for self-described political writers to post on Persuasion but at least link it to something relevant today
"the world did not yet know that the Russian autocrat was planning a wild bid for conquest in Ukraine partly based on ethnic nationalism"
The world also did not yet know that the Ukrainians would defend their homeland based on ethnic nationalism.
I wonder how many people are willing to die for the World Bank or the EU.
But is is also wrong to say that international rivalries never disappeared—and never will. It is not true nor an objective fact. Simply because nations in modern sens and nation-states are not some final step in human history. There is a path towards human unification https://www.theguardian.com/culture/2018/may/21/yuval-noah-harari-brexit-will-not-halt-drive-to-human-unification
Summit of Democracy is a good start, but there are even better solutions and ideas such as starting a World Parliament elected by citizens globally. Sure that "realism" is not "dead" and that geopolitics and nationalist rivalry still exist. So all democrats (I mean humans supporting democracy) should united as world citizens for a world federation and united planet. After all, the struggle is not between civilisations nor even nations in general, but between ideas of digital democracy and digital dictatorship https://www.democracywithoutborders.org/
Taiwan will be the real test of the West. But even if we fail there - and the cards are stacked against us - growing world affluence in the 21st and 22nd centuries will empower middle-classes around the world. They'll choose liberal orders, in the main. Monomaniacal characters like Putin and Xi will fade.
With amazement I read Brian's Stewart's sentence „Through a range of methods, from moral suasion to material support, America helped cultivate the growth of democracy from South Korea to Poland.“
Among the methods by which the United States has conducted foreign policy since the middle of the 20th century are not least all the ugly wars that I would advise the author to count.
I am not persuaded that the Taiwan problem has much in common with the conflict over Ukraine. The one China policy did not spell out that Taiwan must remain independent. Nor is it in the interests of the Taiwanese to see their small nation destroyed in order to defend it. Indeed, Taiwan's economy is intertwined with China's, and if China were simply to nationalize the factories owned by Taiwan, that would do great damage to the Taiwanese economy.
I do not know what the solution to the Taiwan problem will be. But there is no military solution that makes any sense. The 19th century dominance of China by Japan and the West is fresh in Chinese minds. And it should be. An American hegemony simply cannot be tolerated.