Trump Is Down, But Not Out
What the polls tell us about Epstein, immigration, and the economy.
No figure has loomed as large in recent American political history as Donald Trump. Even after losing re-election, attempting to subvert the results of that election, and facing scores of criminal charges (some of which he was ultimately convicted for), he roared back last year, amassing an even larger Electoral College margin than his first win as he convinced a plurality of voters to give him another chance. With his new term now six months underway, this is an opportune moment to take stock of how the country feels about what they’ve seen so far.
When he reassumed the presidency back in January, Trump was at the most popular point of his political life. Polling averages compiled by Nate Silver showed his approval rating in net-positive territory on Day One, with 51.6% of Americans approving of him against just 40.0% disapproving—good for a net approval of 11.7 points. His relatively strong standing even briefly crept up in that first week, hitting an all-time high of 52.4%.
This strong start likely stemmed in no small part from voters’ disillusionment with the previous administration. Like their peers around the globe, many Americans were extremely dissatisfied with the state of affairs as the country emerged from the Covid-19 pandemic. They became concerned about issues like inflation, crime, and immigration. By the summer of 2022, nearly two years into Joe Biden’s term, just 18% of Americans said the country was on the right track compared to 73% who said it was on the wrong one. And though that gap narrowed a little bit, it remained wide throughout the rest of Biden’s presidency.
As the 2024 election approached and voters became less satisfied with Biden, some began looking back on Trump’s first term more positively. An April 2024 New York Times survey found that his standing had markedly improved on questions like law and order (+8), whether he had left the country better off (+9), and his handling of the economy (+10). Despite how many people felt about him at the end of his first term, the intervening four years had convinced some fraction of his detractors to give him a second chance.
It’s likely because of this that Trump has maintained a higher floor this time around. Throughout almost his entire term so far, his average approval has outpaced his first-term approval at the same point. For instance, a few days ago his net approval rested at -9.8 percentage points compared to -15.5 eight years ago. This indicates that some of the voters whom he may have lost by the end of his first term have not only come back—they are sticking with him.
Still, while he is faring better right now relative to his first term, the overall picture isn’t ideal for any president: as we approach the 200-day mark, just 43.7% of voters approve of his performance in the polling averages compared to 53.5% who disapprove, good for a net-negative approval of –9.8 points—tying with mid-April’s low point during the chaos of his tariff threats.
So while Trump’s approval has not fallen to the depths of his first term, he has certainly lost ground relative to last November, including with groups that were vital to his victory. For instance, he made substantial gains with Hispanic voters compared to four years earlier, winning a historic share (45%) for a Republican presidential nominee. Now, though? His approval with Hispanic Americans has dropped to 37% while the share disapproving is nearly 60%.
Even worse is his standing with independents, who were pivotal to his win. Since 1980, independents have backed the winning presidential candidate all but once (in 2004). Last year, they narrowly backed Trump over Harris by two points. But fast-forward to today and just one-third of them approve of his performance compared to 61% who disapprove.
Earlier this year, when Trump’s honeymoon period was cut short, the cause was pretty clear: voters continued to be frustrated with the state of the economy—specifically inflation—and didn’t think he was doing nearly enough to address it. As Silver’s polling aggregator shows, the trajectory of Trump’s overall approval has tracked almost perfectly with Americans’ approval of his handling of economic issues, especially trade. When he began backing off of his tariff threats, his approval began to recover.
Meanwhile, one issue on which he has had a much longer leash with the public is immigration. By the end of Biden’s time in office, the share of Americans who wanted to see immigration levels decrease hit a more than two-decade high of 55%, according to Gallup. The post-election AP VoteCast Survey indicated that voters saw it as the second most important issue behind only the economy, and voters who ranked it as the top issue broke overwhelmingly for Trump over Harris, 88% to 10%.
So, even as his overall approval rating began to decline, Trump maintained net-positive support for his handling of the immigration issue, which mostly persisted through about mid-June. Since then, however, he has begun to lose his edge even there. As of this week, his net approval on the issue reached a low point for his second term, hitting -7.8%. Some individual polls have shown it dipping even further. This may be a sign that his deportation policy, whose most visible manifestation has come in the form of controversial ICE raids, may be starting to lose favor with the public. Indeed, recent polling from Gallup found that pre-election concerns about immigration levels appear to have vanished entirely, with the share of Americans desiring lower levels dropping to just 30% and a plurality now favoring keeping levels where they currently are (which is much lower than they were under Biden).
Finally, if there’s one area that might soften Trump’s support among his core supporters, it’s his handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, including his failure—amid suggestions that he is himself implicated—to authorize a sweeping declassification of investigative material relating to Epstein and his clients. In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, just 40% of self-identified Republicans approved of how Trump has dealt with the issue, against 36% who disapproved, while another 24% did not have an opinion. A subsequent Reuters/Ipsos poll found a similar split on that question and also showed that close to two-thirds of Republicans (62%) believed Trump is hiding details about Epstein’s client list. Trump seems rattled enough by the noise from his base that he took to his Truth Social account to scold them. But even in the face of this, the Quinnipiac poll showed his approval rating with Republicans at 90%, mirroring other recent polls—a sign that, at least so far, his base is still with him.
Despite his recent struggles, it’s not clear that Trump’s declining approval rating will continue unabated. In line with his polarizing nature, the public’s views of him are also quite firm. Silver’s data shows that nearly 70% of Americans either approve (26.4%) or disapprove (43.3%) of him “strongly” compared to barely over one-quarter (~27%) whose approval or disapproval registered as “weak.” This doesn’t mean that Trump can’t or won’t fall further, but at this point in his presidency, the share of Americans who are “Never Trump” is likely close to its peak.
Nor have Trump’s recent struggles benefited the Democrats. Quite the contrary: they remain deeply unpopular. A new CNN poll shows that just 28% of Americans have a favorable view of the party, the lowest share since CNN began tracking this question in 2006. Quinnipiac also gauged voters’ views of Democrats in Congress, and the picture was even bleaker: a paltry 19% approve of their performance, also a record low. Though Republicans weren’t in much better shape, they enjoyed a higher overall approval (33%) and were in better standing with independents (24% approval against the Democrats’ 13%).
Given all this, Trump could end his second term with a low approval and it still wouldn’t guarantee his successor will be poorly positioned heading into 2028. But this data does give us a snapshot into how Americans view his second term at a time in most two-term presidencies when the public begins to get restless and have historically taken out their frustration on the president’s party during the midterms. Right now, a growing number of voters aren’t happy with the trajectory of things. Time will tell if Trump heeds this feedback—or powers forward in the face of it.
Michael Baharaeen is the Chief Political Analyst for The Liberal Patriot. He is a native of Kansas City and writes the Checks and Balances newsletter on Substack.
This piece was cross-posted with The Liberal Patriot.
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And now Mike Johnson is saying he's going to shut down the House till September in order to avoid a vote on releasing the Epstein files. Trump sure is acting like he's got something to hide.
It’s only been six months…I think Biden was just beginning to lose support at this point in his presidency, due to the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. It’s hard to see how Trump can go another three years without more dramatic damage showing up…likely his current relatively high floor of support is due tot he fact that people haven’t yet felt the effects of the DOGE cuts and government functions haven’t yet broken down as much as they inevitably will in the coming years.