Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Jens Heycke's avatar

The example of the Soviet Union and Russia makes this clear. When a govt. has little transparency, and officials at every level have a strong incentive to hide screw-ups rather than expose and correct them, its military can be incredibly feeble. Note Russia's spectacularly inept Ukraine invasion, for example.

Moreover -- In the West, we may have forgotten China's disastrous invasion of Vietnam in 1979, but I'm sure the Chinese haven't. The Chinese force vastly outnumbered the Vietnamese but got their asses spanked and retreated quickly. Chinese casualties -- over 60,000 -- were almost as numerous as Vietnam's entire defensive force. Vietnam had a fraction of the PLA casualties.

China would be looking at a similar scenario with Taiwan -- a well-trained and patriotic-as-hell force fighting to defend their home turf, against a relatively unmotivated, corrupt PRC army.

Expand full comment
Travis Monteleone's avatar

The energy lens is also important to consider when thinking through the difference between Russia and China's invasion decisions. Russia's status as an energy exporter gave it the insulation it needed to launch its invasion at a high point in the oil price cycle. China's status as an energy importer cripples its optionality due to the Malacca Dilemma.

Even if Xi fixes the near-term corruption and economic concerns, he'll have to deal with revamped focus and collaboration from the US and its Quad allies over the medium-term and cratering Chinese demographics over the long-term. Given these mounting issues, he may simply decide that there's no time like the present. If not, we may have China's poor energy footing to thank.

Expand full comment
7 more comments...

No posts