The example of the Soviet Union and Russia makes this clear. When a govt. has little transparency, and officials at every level have a strong incentive to hide screw-ups rather than expose and correct them, its military can be incredibly feeble. Note Russia's spectacularly inept Ukraine invasion, for example.
Moreover -- In the West, we may have forgotten China's disastrous invasion of Vietnam in 1979, but I'm sure the Chinese haven't. The Chinese force vastly outnumbered the Vietnamese but got their asses spanked and retreated quickly. Chinese casualties -- over 60,000 -- were almost as numerous as Vietnam's entire defensive force. Vietnam had a fraction of the PLA casualties.
China would be looking at a similar scenario with Taiwan -- a well-trained and patriotic-as-hell force fighting to defend their home turf, against a relatively unmotivated, corrupt PRC army.
The energy lens is also important to consider when thinking through the difference between Russia and China's invasion decisions. Russia's status as an energy exporter gave it the insulation it needed to launch its invasion at a high point in the oil price cycle. China's status as an energy importer cripples its optionality due to the Malacca Dilemma.
Even if Xi fixes the near-term corruption and economic concerns, he'll have to deal with revamped focus and collaboration from the US and its Quad allies over the medium-term and cratering Chinese demographics over the long-term. Given these mounting issues, he may simply decide that there's no time like the present. If not, we may have China's poor energy footing to thank.
Total lay person here.... In all seriousness, Its nice to hear such optimism :) But I cant help but think of the scenario a few guests ago laid out. Not so much a full scale invasion, but a naval blockade as discussed with Albert Wu and https://www.persuasion.community/p/allenebrahimian. Rather than "surrender or die" a more, seemingly reasonable approach like "We just want a few people to sit with the political decision makers and have a dialog" or some other seemingly anodyne concessions. Basically what they said about Hong Kong, but "this time for realz, comrade's honor!"... Its hard to see an isolationist America intervening in that scenario as they cant even get behind Ukraine ?
A soft attack would merit a soft retaliation. The US Navy could just cut the Malacca Strait in this scenario and not risk any American lives or military hardware, while depriving China of 70% of its oil imports. Not a bad trade
How would the US make such a blockade without the threat of force behind it ? Also is there actual political will in the US ? The left and right extremes of the US seem to have whipped up such a isolationist sentiment among their base, it seems hard to see how their political careers would fair (the most important thing in the world to them) if they suddenly said, "Oh, well we need to risk US lives and spend money overseas" now. Again, as a casual observer, it just feels like the Xi Jinping would think the US is bluffing.
The US Navy would use force to cut the Strait, so yes force is absolutely necessary. China's ability to project naval power more than 1,000 miles from its coast is extremely limited, so the odds that China is able to contest this blockade is almost zero. Because the risk to the US Navy is so low, the political will required to do this would also be very low. Agreed isolationist sentiment is currently running high, but this blockade would be a very low cost response in terms of both military resources and political capital.
When it comes to talk about invasion of Taiwan, there are two additional factors to consider. First, China abandoned its blue-water navy in the early 15th century at least until now. A country can build all the modern navy vessels it wants and needs, but it takes generations of sailors to develop the expertise to use them. The US and the UK have that expertise. China does not. Second, the Taiwan Strait is a better tank trap than the English channel.
China could roll the dice and try a complete blockade of Taiwan. Would China dare to seize a US merchant vessel with a civilian cargo on the open seas on its way to Taiwan with the US Navy nearby?
The example of the Soviet Union and Russia makes this clear. When a govt. has little transparency, and officials at every level have a strong incentive to hide screw-ups rather than expose and correct them, its military can be incredibly feeble. Note Russia's spectacularly inept Ukraine invasion, for example.
Moreover -- In the West, we may have forgotten China's disastrous invasion of Vietnam in 1979, but I'm sure the Chinese haven't. The Chinese force vastly outnumbered the Vietnamese but got their asses spanked and retreated quickly. Chinese casualties -- over 60,000 -- were almost as numerous as Vietnam's entire defensive force. Vietnam had a fraction of the PLA casualties.
China would be looking at a similar scenario with Taiwan -- a well-trained and patriotic-as-hell force fighting to defend their home turf, against a relatively unmotivated, corrupt PRC army.
The energy lens is also important to consider when thinking through the difference between Russia and China's invasion decisions. Russia's status as an energy exporter gave it the insulation it needed to launch its invasion at a high point in the oil price cycle. China's status as an energy importer cripples its optionality due to the Malacca Dilemma.
Even if Xi fixes the near-term corruption and economic concerns, he'll have to deal with revamped focus and collaboration from the US and its Quad allies over the medium-term and cratering Chinese demographics over the long-term. Given these mounting issues, he may simply decide that there's no time like the present. If not, we may have China's poor energy footing to thank.
Total lay person here.... In all seriousness, Its nice to hear such optimism :) But I cant help but think of the scenario a few guests ago laid out. Not so much a full scale invasion, but a naval blockade as discussed with Albert Wu and https://www.persuasion.community/p/allenebrahimian. Rather than "surrender or die" a more, seemingly reasonable approach like "We just want a few people to sit with the political decision makers and have a dialog" or some other seemingly anodyne concessions. Basically what they said about Hong Kong, but "this time for realz, comrade's honor!"... Its hard to see an isolationist America intervening in that scenario as they cant even get behind Ukraine ?
A soft attack would merit a soft retaliation. The US Navy could just cut the Malacca Strait in this scenario and not risk any American lives or military hardware, while depriving China of 70% of its oil imports. Not a bad trade
How would the US make such a blockade without the threat of force behind it ? Also is there actual political will in the US ? The left and right extremes of the US seem to have whipped up such a isolationist sentiment among their base, it seems hard to see how their political careers would fair (the most important thing in the world to them) if they suddenly said, "Oh, well we need to risk US lives and spend money overseas" now. Again, as a casual observer, it just feels like the Xi Jinping would think the US is bluffing.
The US Navy would use force to cut the Strait, so yes force is absolutely necessary. China's ability to project naval power more than 1,000 miles from its coast is extremely limited, so the odds that China is able to contest this blockade is almost zero. Because the risk to the US Navy is so low, the political will required to do this would also be very low. Agreed isolationist sentiment is currently running high, but this blockade would be a very low cost response in terms of both military resources and political capital.
Awesome, thanks for the insights!
When it comes to talk about invasion of Taiwan, there are two additional factors to consider. First, China abandoned its blue-water navy in the early 15th century at least until now. A country can build all the modern navy vessels it wants and needs, but it takes generations of sailors to develop the expertise to use them. The US and the UK have that expertise. China does not. Second, the Taiwan Strait is a better tank trap than the English channel.
China could roll the dice and try a complete blockade of Taiwan. Would China dare to seize a US merchant vessel with a civilian cargo on the open seas on its way to Taiwan with the US Navy nearby?
The water in the missiles got a laugh out of me. Such a good ancedote.