Serbia Turns Toward the West
President Vučić is navigating a course between Putin and Trump—but will soon have to choose.
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Serbia—Russia’s strategic partner and historic ally—now aims to develop closer ties with Ukraine. While the European Union is encouraging Serbia’s foreign policy shift, the Kremlin is so far turning a blind eye to Belgrade’s outreach to Kyiv. But how does the United States view Serbia’s new diplomatic direction?
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić was in frequent contact with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, both by phone and regular in-person meetings. But after the West imposed sanctions on the Kremlin following Moscow’s actions in Ukraine, he significantly reduced his communication with his Russian counterpart.
At the same time, over the past four and a half years, Vučić has met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on several occasions. Most recently, on July 15, he traveled to Kyiv for the first time since the war broke out to participate in the fifth Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit.
Even though he was the only Southeast European leader who did not sign a joint declaration calling for increased international pressure on Russia, relations between Belgrade and Kyiv have continued to grow closer. Last week, Zelenskyy made his first-ever official visit to Serbia—a move that could, in the long-term, have a serious impact on Belgrade’s cooperation with Moscow.
Although Vučić said he did not discuss military cooperation between Serbia and Ukraine with Zelenskyy, Russia undoubtedly has reasons for concern. In 2024, despite its declaration of military neutrality adopted in 2007, the Balkan nation indirectly supplied Kyiv with ammunition worth €800 million. Such arrangements, according to former U.S. ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill, were coordinated directly from Washington. As he recently stressed, Serbia’s military cooperation with Ukraine is far more important for the United States than Belgrade’s decision not to formally join anti-Russian sanctions, regardless of the European Union’s repeated demands.
Moscow turned a blind eye when Serbian ammunition was sent to Ukraine, taking a year to react and accuse Belgrade of “betrayal.” Although Serbia, under pressure from Russia, halted ammunition exports, there is no guarantee that it will not eventually resume arms exports to Ukraine through third countries.
Given that Russia has demonstrated serious weaknesses in Ukraine and failed to achieve any of its strategic goals there, Belgrade has little reason to worry about potential retaliation from Moscow. Hypothetically, if Serbia continues to strengthen its ties with Ukraine, Russia could respond by ending its gas arrangements with the Balkan nation. Such a move could indeed have a serious impact on the Serbian economy, which is heavily dependent on Russian gas.
However, after the United States Senate passed a bill allowing sanctions to be imposed on countries that purchase Russian energy, Serbia may soon be forced to end its gas cooperation with Moscow anyway. After the Trump administration cut tariffs on Serbian goods entering the United States from 35 percent to zero, the last thing Belgrade needs is to face tariffs of up to 100 percent for continuing to buy Russian oil and gas.
Aware of that, Belgrade seems to be laying the groundwork for closer energy cooperation with the United States. But Vučić faces a problem: his voters have strong pro-Russian sentiments. Ahead of the parliamentary and presidential elections, which could take place later this year or in 2027, he will have to find a way to gradually steer his voters away from their pro-Russian views and toward a more pro-American outlook.
The process seems to have already begun. On August 1, the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), an American mixed martial arts promotion with a relatively limited following in Serbia, held its first-ever show in Belgrade. It seems that one of the main reasons for bringing the event to the Serbian capital was to provide a platform for Vučić’s supporters to display a large banner reading, “President Trump, Serbia welcomes you.” Trump later shared a photo of the banner on his Truth Social account.
Like Russia’s allies in Central Asia, Serbian officials have chosen to describe Vučić’s efforts to strengthen ties with Washington as a “balanced foreign policy,” a term often used to signify building a relationship with the United States. However, Vučić’s motivation is different to those countries’: while their economic reliance on Russia makes them fear Moscow’s reaction to this cooperation, Vučić’s concern is his voters.
This enthusiasm of Vučić’s base for Russia is why he is very unlikely to completely sever relations with Moscow, at least until the elections are over. In the meantime, if necessary, he can even travel to Moscow to meet with Putin, which his voters are likely to interpret as a sign of the Russian leader’s support for Vučić. Such a move would almost certainly help his party win the parliamentary elections, after which he could continue pursuing his policy of “pro-Western neutrality.”
The fact that Moscow did not immediately react to Zelenskyy’s visit to Belgrade and that pro-Kremlin analysts tried to downplay his meeting with Vučić suggests that Russia hopes to continue business as usual with Serbia. By remaining silent about Vučić’s moves, the Kremlin provides the Russian population with the illusion that Serbia is allegedly defying Western pressure and refusing to impose sanctions on Moscow.
As long as Vučić remains on this course, he can count on Russia’s de facto support. At the same time, he is expected to keep flirting with Trump. But if he is eventually forced to make a definitive choice between Moscow and Washington, he will undoubtedly choose the latter. Until then, he is likely to continue balancing between all the major foreign powers vying for influence in the Balkans.
Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist, researcher, and analyst based in Serbia.
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